486
FXUS63 KLSX 242307
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
507 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OTHER THAN A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY, MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. BUT SINCE WE DID NOT WARM UP AS
MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S, A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AROUND THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE.
ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS, SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. IF CLOUDS ARE LESS EXTENSIVE, WE
COULD WARM MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BUT NOT AS
BITTERLY COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
BYRD
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. OUR REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH EACH SYSTEM, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT OR THE ONE THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A BIT BUT REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TUESDAY BEING OUR WARMEST DAY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A
WIDE VARIATION AMONG THE MEMBERS ON HOW THE WEST COAST SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. A MAJORITY OF
THE ECMWF MEMBERS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM, FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO STUCK WITH THE LATEST NBM SOLUTION
WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE, IT COULD END UP BEING A MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.
BYRD
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AS A 35 - 45 KT LLJ SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
WINDS WILL BEGIN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
JAJA
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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