563
FXUS63 KLSX 291746
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
-WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM START AND 925 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS WILL PEAK ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND LACK OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE OZARKS.
THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL BRING OUR END OF WEEK RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOBES OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE FLOW INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE
WARM FRONT, WILL BLOSSOM RAIN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS, OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THANKS TO THE LLJ RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
THE LLJ WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTING
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.00-1.25 INCHES WITH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PUSHING 1.50 INCHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING AT LEAST 0.5" OF
RAIN, THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN CAPS AROUND 60-70% IN THIS AREA. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED, PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1.0 INCHES ARE NEAR 70%.
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE BROADER RAIN SHIELD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES RAIN AND SOME GUIDANCE SOURCES, INCLUDING THE GFS OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE HREF, SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THE NOW MODEST SOUNDING 1.5-2.0 INCHES
OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 INCHES OF RAIN
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. IT MUST BE NOTED
HOWEVER, THAT THE LOCATION OF THESE NOTABLE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE AND
SHIFT AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND SOURCES OF LIFT MOVES. WHERE AREAS
RECEIVE AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION RISES ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS COULD REACH ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO THE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WHILE ANYWHERE 4-5
INCHES OF RAIN FALLS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT STREAM, RIVER, AND
OVERLAND FLOODING.
DELIA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK HIGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED IN ON THIS
WARM UP WITH THE IQR ON SUNDAY ONLY 4 DEGREES AND MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES!
MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE SOURCES BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS EVIDENT IN THE IQR WHICH
IS 10 DEGREES OR MORE BEYOND SUNDAY. THE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS LOW.
DELIA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 10-12Z. LOW MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN, AND PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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