477
FXUS63 KLSX 300833
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- ISOLATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LARGE HAIL OF 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS WAS LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AR
INTO SW MO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO IT'S WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS
THE QLCS NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL MO AROUND 10-11Z AND
RAPIDLY MOVES IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 14Z OR SO
IN A WEAKENING AND DECAYING STATE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN
CENTRAL MO IN ADVANCE OF IT AND THAT SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL HAVE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO
BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRESENCE OF ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, BUT VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR IN IT'S WAKE AND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH SBCAPE OF AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG BY
MIDDAY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE COMBO OF IT ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ONCE AGAIN THE GUIDANCE IS
REASONABLY CLUSTERED INDICATING CI WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IN A ZONE FROM AROUND TROY TO ROLLA IN THE 16-17Z TIME
FRAME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE STRONG AND HAVE A MORE FRONT
PARALLEL COMPONENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND A BIT
MORE ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT FARTHER SOUTH. THE EXPECTED MODE WOULD BE
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MO EASTWARD WHERE IT
COULD BE A BIT MESSY WITH MERGERS, AND THEN POTENTIALLY MORE
DISCRETE STORMS HEADING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS. THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL SEEMS HIGH AND PROBABLY THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD FOLLOW BY WIND AND THEN TORNADOES. THE TORNADO PARAMETER
SPACE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS FORECAST 24-48H AGO WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTING 0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL AND EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST
MO. THESE VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY WITH
STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS, CONSTRUCTIVE MERGERS, AND VIA
INTERNAL SUPERCELL PROCESSES. NOTE HOWEVER THEY ARE A FAR CRY FROM
THE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ON 3/14 WHICH RANGED FROM 450-550 M2/S2.
OUR THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE THAT SW/SC IL AND SE MO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE ADJUSTED POSITION OF THE SPC DAY1 ENH CENTERED
WITHIN THAT REGION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE STORMS WILL HAVE
EXITED THE CWA BY 23-00Z.
MONDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
TRANQUIL AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GLASS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THE
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED FEATURING LOW-
LEVEL SE-S FLOW.
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING AND THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BOTH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATED
IN THE PLETHORA OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY 00Z THURSDAY. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF CO WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING UPPER
TROF, AND DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IS IMPRESSIVE WHICH RESULTS IN NOTABLE SBCAPE
VALUES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE WARM
SECTOR; THE CONSERVATIVE NBM IS SHOWING SBCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG
AT 18Z. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ COULD ALSO GENERATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT-
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GLASS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. ROUND ONE WILL
COME VIA A STORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. BEFORE THE
COMPLEX WEAKENS TOO MUCH, KCOU AND KJEF ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
TAKE THE BRUNT OF IT. AS THE COMPLEX TRAVELS FURTHER EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID MORNING, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY, LEADING
TO A LOW CHANCE OF LESS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT KUIN, KSUS, KSTL,
AND KCPS. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
FIRST ROUND WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND
ROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
FIRST ROUND MAY LEAD TO THE SECOND ROUND ONLY IMPACTING KSUS,
KSTL, AND KCPS OR EVEN FORMING WELL EAST OF THESE TERMINALS. A
WEAKER FIRST ROUND MAY LEAD TO THE SECOND ROUND FORMING SOONER AND
IMPACTING ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS SECOND ROUND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS THAT ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND DRY AIR MOVES IN.
ELMORE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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