044
FXUS63 KLSX 170541
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS EXIT
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT - SATURDAY EVENING,
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN OUR AREA ALONG A FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF A
KVIH>>KUIN AXIS AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY OR JUST
BEFORE 2300 UTC. LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE (2.75+") STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ASSOCIATED HAIL CAPE. THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH
SOUTHERLY EXTENT, WITH THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 0-1KM
SRH AROUND 150-175 M^2/SEC^2. LCL VALUES ARE ALSO A BIT LOWER DOWN
IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS COMPARED TO EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, A STRONG RFD
SURGE VERY RECENTLY JUST HELPED SPIN UP A TORNADO FURTHER NORTH,
SO THE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TORNADO WATCH.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
GOSSELIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT)
TODAY'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE 2 MCSS THAT MAY IMPACT
THE REGION, ONE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATTER SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR, BUT HOW FAR NORTH IS A QUESTION MARK. SOMETIMES
ANTECEDENT CONVECTION REALLY HAMPERS THE POLEWARD PROGRESS OF
RETREATING WARM FRONTS. THERE IS SOME MODEST LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR CONTINUED NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT AGAIN, THIS COULD BE OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY WILL BE
ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTION THROUGH
THAT TIME LIKELY IS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ELEVATED IN NATURE (HAIL COULD BE A THREAT THOUGH). IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THE PROBABILITIES HAVE TRICKLED UP ABOUT 10%
FOR 2+" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES ARE NOW
IN THE 50-70% RANGE ACROSS THE BI-STATE AREA. FOR AT LEAST 4",
CHANCES ARE IN THE 10-15% RANGE, STILL QUITE LOW BUT A BIT HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 5% ON AVERAGE. THE OVERALL CONCERN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT OR RIVER FLOOD THREAT IS STILL
FAIRLY LOW, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY, A LOT OF THE AREA
IS NOW RUNNING A SLIGHT DEFICIT IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT SINCE
MAY 1ST. PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ABNORMAL DRYNESS/MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND COULD REALLY USE 2-3+" OF RAIN.
AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS STILL ON THE TABLE FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAJOR CAVEATS CONTINUE INCLUDING A LOT OF SPREAD
WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH ITSELF AND ON
INSTABILITY. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK
DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONVECTION PRIMARILY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD STILL ARE TRICKY, ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS. THE TRACK OF EACH NOCTURNAL MCS WILL HAVE
RAMIFICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FROM THE NBM EACH OF THESE
DAYS IS LARGE, MAINLY ON THE ORDER OF 8-12 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
(WEDNESDAY - NEXT FRIDAY)
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY CHILLY FOR
LATE MAY STANDARDS AS AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA PEAK OUT AT
AROUND 6 TO 8C BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THOSE TYPE OF VALUES WOULDN'T BE NOTEWORTHY IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER,
IT IS FOR LATE MAY (CLOSER TO 2 SIGMA BELOW NORMAL). THE COOLEST DAY
IS LIKELY TO BE ON WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST. IF
CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S. LOWS LATE WEEK ARE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SKY COVER, BUT
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S ARE CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE.
GOSSELIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY. WIND IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO
25-30KTS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER
04Z-05Z.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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