654
FXUS63 KLSX 200806
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
306 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- COOLER AND MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND THEN THROUGH
ILLINOIS BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS INSTABILITY BACK
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 2000-2200
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40- 50KTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THAT ERODES IN SOME MODELS BUT
STAYS FIRM IN OTHERS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT STILL DOESN'T
LOOK THAT STRONG, BUT SEVERAL SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN ILLINOIS. HODOGRAPHS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CURVATURE, BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL
BE THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL ENCOURAGE
SPLITS, SO DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE THERE COULD BE MERGERS AND
UPSCALE GROWTH, HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE
EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE BENIGN
THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT LEAST TWO OR THREE SHORT
WAVES PASS OVER THE AREA, ONE FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER TWO SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE WAVES FORCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND TURN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF PRINT OUT SEVERAL
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, THE LREF AND NBM FOCUS MORE ON SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES DO PAINT A BROAD SWATH OF 2+ INCH QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70 THOUGH, SO THERE COULD BE SOME WATER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS
WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT OUR FORECAST AREA STAYS ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE, AND WHILE THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, THE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW AND MID 50S.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING KCOU/KJEF AT THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INTENSE,
INCLUDING HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERED BY
3-HOUR TEMPO GROUPS WITH +TSRA AND BOOKENDED BY SHRA TO CONVEY THE
HIGH CHANCES (80-90%) FOR RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AFTER THE INITIAL
LINE PASSES.
THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS WILL GENERALLY BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
AND TRACK EASTWARD WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BRING IT INTO KUIN AROUND 01-02Z
AND THE METRO TAF AROUND AND AFTER 02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER FIELD OF CONVECTION. ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIFR IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LIFR SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AND AWAY FROM AIRFIELDS.
CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR TUESDAY IN THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOWERS WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT
REMAINS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED AND LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. METRO TERMINALS ARE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT AND MONITORED IN THE EVENT PREVAILING
GROUPS ARE TO CARRY TSRA FOR A SHORT DURATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAPLES
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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