800
FXUS63 KLSX 191738
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
- ADDITIONAL SIMILAR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SAME AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS HEAT BEGINS TODAY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70,
AND SPREADS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
HEATWAVE WILL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS DUE TO BOTH THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-DURATION HEATWAVE.
THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ASIDE FROM A
FEW WEAK AND VERY SPORADIC SHOWERS, BUT VERY HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES. MEANWHILE, A
VERY MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO IN PLACE, PROVIDING
SOME SLIGHT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING, THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A STEADY
INCREASE IN LOCALLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
MAY POSE A LIMITED RATE-DRIVEN HEAVY RAIN THREAT THANKS TO THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, BUT LITTLE ELSE. HREF MEMBERS AND MORE
RECENT INDIVIDUAL CAMS MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY, BUT IT MAY BECOME
ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM EARLY TO LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS SOMETIME
AROUND MID-DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING HAS IMPROVED A BIT NOW THAT
THE COMPLEX HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY IN MODELS REGARDING JUST HOW WELL IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT APPROACHES. WHILE THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT RATHER ROBUST INSTABILITY AS AFTERNOON HEATING
COMMENCES, THIS MAY BE STUNTED IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. LIKEWISE, CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EVOLUTION
AS IT DIVES INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS, ALTHOUGH THESE
AREAS DO REMAIN HEAVILY FAVORED OVER AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH VERY
HEAVY INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES (AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR). CONSIDERING THESE POTENTIAL RATES, IT WOULD NOT BE
DIFFICULT TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS IN SMALL
POCKETS, EVEN IF THIS LINE IS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE. AS SUCH,
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, EVEN IF THIS REMAINS A
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT.
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO
BACKBUILD, AS THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MORE PROLONGED RAINFALL
AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO, AS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST IS NOT PARTICULARLY IDEAL FOR THIS, AND
THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT IN RECENT CAMS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
PERSISTENT, IF NOT STRONG, MOISTURE-RICH INFLOW, AND THIS HAS AT
LEAST A LIMITED POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME BACK-BUILDING AS WELL.
WHILE AN UNLIKELY (25% OR LESS) SCENARIO, THIS COULD LEAD TO
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OVER SMALL AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF IT
OCCURS IN AREAS THAT SEE CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THERE ALSO REMAINS A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY
IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS WEAK AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS
STRONGER. VERY WARM PROFILES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION LINEAR STORM MODES DO NOT FAVOR LARGE HAIL TODAY, AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES,
EITHER. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY LOW LCLS THAT A WEAK TORNADO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.
FINALLY, DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS SET TO BEGIN ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY APPROXIMATE.
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CREATE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SURGE SOUTH, AND AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TO NEAR 105 DEGREES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER. TODAY IS JUST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS HEAT, THOUGH, AS THE WORST OF IT IS YET TO COME.
BRC
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING, BUT A PERSISTENT PATTERN MAY LEAD TO
REPEAT THUNDERSTORM EVENTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOT ONLY WILL THIS KEEP THE WINDOW OPEN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND OTHER
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, BUT IT WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP THE MOST
DANGEROUS HEAT LOCKED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY MONDAY UNTIL DEFINITIVELY EXPANDING TUESDAY
ONWARD.
AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, DAY TO DAY DETAILS REGARDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE AFTER TODAY'S
POTENTIAL, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY
TO CHANGE MUCH. A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND FUEL
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE COMPLEXES ARE THEN LIKELY TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA,
BRINGING VARYING DEGREES OF HAZARDS THAT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE
TIMING OF THEIR ARRIVAL. EACH NIGHT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR INITIATION
REMAIN ACROSS IOWA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY AND A FEW
RECENT CAMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS. WHEREVER
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THOUGH, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING A STALLED FRONT / COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, AND FITS A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE. WHILE AGAIN THE
MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH, THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY FOR A SOUTHERLY SHIFT, AS SUCH A
PATTERN COULD LEAD TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IF IT
DEVELOPS LOCALLY AND REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
MONDAY, ATTENTION BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EXPANSION OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE HEAT WATCH MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO
WARM UP THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT REST
ASSURED THAT BY TUESDAY THIS NO LONGER BECOMES A FACTOR, AND HEAT
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE THAT WILL FINALLY SHUNT THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING
THE ENTIRE AREA TO BAKE UNDER THE FULL WEIGHT OF THE UPPER HIGH.
MEANWHILE, VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT
WE WILL LIKELY OBSERVE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES, AND POSSIBLY HIGHER, FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70, THIS WOULD LIKELY EQUATE TO AT
LEAST 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SUCH TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
STRETCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH, THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE AS, IF NOT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT, THAN THE HEAT
MAGNITUDE ON ANY INDIVIDUAL DAY, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
HEATWAVE TO CREATE RATHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS A RESULT.
19
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, FEATURING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS
ALONG WITH SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THIS COMPLEX,
LARGELY DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY,
BUT THERE IS ANOTHER HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
KUIN SUNDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
PFAHLER
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-
RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT
CHARLES MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MADISON IL-
MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL.
WFO LSX
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