741
FXUS63 KLSX 201945
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY MONDAY, DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE A WIDESPREAD RESURGENCE ON TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, LITTLE TO NO MORNING PRECIPITATION AND
CLEARING OF MORNING ALTOCUMULUS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S F IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH, COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S F, IS YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ F. THE FOOTPRINT OF THESE VALUES IS MUCH LARGER THAN SATURDAY.
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL, PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 F,
CONTRASTING LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN/WAA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK, AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST, A WEAK MCV IS TRACKING INTO WESTERN MO,
ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR FOR THE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS
TO STRENGTHEN/BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THEY ARRIVE. CAMS HAVE BEEN
POORLY HANDLING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 NEAR A WEAK FRONT REINFORCED SOUTHWARD
BY ONGOING SHOWERS. REGARDLESS, AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH
2500 TO 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTAIN SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (100 TO 150 M2/S2 0-3 SRH) SUGGESTING A FEW
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO A SHORT WINDOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT FAVORS SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS/MCS WITH TIME, LEADING TO FAMILIES OF
WET MICROBURSTS WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS BEING A GREATER
THREAT.
AS A MODEST 35-KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS AND ITS NOSE
BECOMES POSITIONED NEAR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS CAMS
AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUPPORT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OR MCSS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT, HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH ANOMALOUS PW OF 2 TO 2.5"
AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WITH UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 10
KT, THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PROLIFIC TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING. THE LATEST HREF LPMM CONTAINS STREAKS OF 3 TO 6+"
ACROSS BOTH IL AND MO NORTH OF I-70, SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF FLASH
FLOODING. THAT BEING SAID, CAMS VARY WIDELY WITH THE LOCATION AND
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, WHICH IS LIKELY TO DO WITH MIXED
POOR HANDLING OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS LARGE SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS
METRO, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SCENARIOS DEPICTED BY MORE SOUTHERLY
THUNDERSTORM-REACHING CAMS.
AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO WEAK MONDAY MORNING, A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR, BUT AT LEAST CLOUDS WILL LINGER FURTHER
INTO THE DAY ASIDE FROM UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
CEASE ALTOGETHER. WITH THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT
STRETCHERING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, 20 TO 30 PERCENT OF HREF
MEMBERSHIP HAS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANYING "RIDGE RUNNING" MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OR INITIATING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEFLY COOLER ON MONDAY, BUT 50 TO 80 PERCENT
OF HREF MEMBERSHIP HAS SUFFICIENT SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND HEATING
OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S F TO YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ F
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THAT MEANS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING COULD
FAIL TO REACH 100 F HEAT INDEX, BUT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT
RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND HESITATION TO COMPLICATE HEADLINES, NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
PFAHLER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD, LIMITING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEVER REALLY REACHES ZERO IN
ENSEMBLE MODELS AND BOUNCES BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND FRONT FROM MONDAY, OR SOME SEMBLANCE OF
IT, ONLY VERY SLOWLY DISSOLVING WITH TIME. OVERALL, ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPORADIC WITH LIMITED FORCING AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD AND DANGEROUS DAILY HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105+ F WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
SUPPORTED BY 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERSHIP AND NBM
INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES CONFINED TO THE 90S F COMBINED
WITH 70+ F DEWPOINTS. THE LONGEVITY OF THE HEAT WAVE BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPENING UP OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO CONJURE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THE
HEAT WILL END, BUT IT DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO FURTHER EXTEND
HEAT HEADLINES BEYOND THEIR CURRENT END TIMES.
PFAHLER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN MO AND
WEST-CENTRAL IL WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX
WITH TIME, BUT THEIR EXACT EVOLUTION, TIMING, AND LOCATION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHEST AT KUIN, BUT IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30S AT ALL TERMINALS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO TRAIN OVER SIMILAR AREAS AND RESULT IN
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT KUIN. AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
PFAHLER
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN MO-LINCOLN MO-
MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-
SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT LOUIS MO-WARREN MO.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-
RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT
CHARLES MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION
MO-SHELBY MO.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MADISON IL-
MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
WFO LSX
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