062
FXUS63 KLSX 202354
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ALONG A WEAK
AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN REGIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING, AND THE ONGOING SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL KEEP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED AFTER SUNSET.
THIS BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, MAY SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT WHEN THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY OVER COVERAGE AND LOCATION STILL EXISTS, THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY EXIST AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS FROM KIRKSVILLE, MO
THROUGH ST. LOUIS TO SALEM, IL. OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REGARDLESS
OF WHETHER TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE CURRENT EXTENT OF
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS SUFFICIENT AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THAT
PRODUCT OR THE RESULTANT MESSAGING ARE EXPECTED.
MRB
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY MONDAY, DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE A WIDESPREAD RESURGENCE ON TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, LITTLE TO NO MORNING PRECIPITATION AND
CLEARING OF MORNING ALTOCUMULUS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S F IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH, COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S F, IS YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ F. THE FOOTPRINT OF THESE VALUES IS MUCH LARGER THAN SATURDAY.
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL, PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 F,
CONTRASTING LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN/WAA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK, AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST, A WEAK MCV IS TRACKING INTO WESTERN MO,
ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR FOR THE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS
TO STRENGTHEN/BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THEY ARRIVE. CAMS HAVE BEEN
POORLY HANDLING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 NEAR A WEAK FRONT REINFORCED SOUTHWARD
BY ONGOING SHOWERS. REGARDLESS, AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH
2500 TO 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTAIN SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (100 TO 150 M2/S2 0-3 SRH) SUGGESTING A FEW
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO A SHORT WINDOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT FAVORS SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS/MCS WITH TIME, LEADING TO FAMILIES OF
WET MICROBURSTS WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS BEING A GREATER
THREAT.
AS A MODEST 35-KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS AND ITS NOSE
BECOMES POSITIONED NEAR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS CAMS
AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUPPORT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OR MCSS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT, HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH ANOMALOUS PW OF 2 TO 2.5"
AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WITH UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 10
KT, THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PROLIFIC TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING. THE LATEST HREF LPMM CONTAINS STREAKS OF 3 TO 6+"
ACROSS BOTH IL AND MO NORTH OF I-70, SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF FLASH
FLOODING. THAT BEING SAID, CAMS VARY WIDELY WITH THE LOCATION AND
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, WHICH IS LIKELY TO DO WITH MIXED
POOR HANDLING OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS LARGE SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD, INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS
METRO, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SCENARIOS DEPICTED BY MORE SOUTHERLY
THUNDERSTORM-REACHING CAMS.
AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO WEAK MONDAY MORNING, A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR, BUT AT LEAST CLOUDS WILL LINGER FURTHER
INTO THE DAY ASIDE FROM UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
CEASE ALTOGETHER. WITH THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT
STRETCHERING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, 20 TO 30 PERCENT OF HREF
MEMBERSHIP HAS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANYING "RIDGE RUNNING" MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OR INITIATING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEFLY COOLER ON MONDAY, BUT 50 TO 80 PERCENT
OF HREF MEMBERSHIP HAS SUFFICIENT SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AND HEATING
OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S F TO YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ F
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THAT MEANS THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING COULD
FAIL TO REACH 100 F HEAT INDEX, BUT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT
RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND HESITATION TO COMPLICATE HEADLINES, NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
PFAHLER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD, LIMITING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEVER REALLY REACHES ZERO IN
ENSEMBLE MODELS AND BOUNCES BETWEEN 10 AND 30 PERCENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND FRONT FROM MONDAY, OR SOME SEMBLANCE OF
IT, ONLY VERY SLOWLY DISSOLVING WITH TIME. OVERALL, ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPORADIC WITH LIMITED FORCING AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD AND DANGEROUS DAILY HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105+ F WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
SUPPORTED BY 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERSHIP AND NBM
INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES CONFINED TO THE 90S F COMBINED
WITH 70+ F DEWPOINTS. THE LONGEVITY OF THE HEAT WAVE BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME SIGNS
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPENING UP OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO CONJURE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THE
HEAT WILL END, BUT IT DOES LOWER CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO FURTHER EXTEND
HEAT HEADLINES BEYOND THEIR CURRENT END TIMES.
PFAHLER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST AT THE TERMINALS, THOUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL SEE A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTS ARE AT THE ST. LOUIS AREA TERMINALS AND KUIN, THOUGH
EXACTLY WHEN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. FURTHER WEST, THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI TERMINALS MAY SEE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS WELL, BUT THEIR
UNCERTAINTY IS MORE CENTERED AROUND THE EVENT'S ACTUAL OCCURRENCE
AS OPPOSED TO WHEN. LOWER CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY LAST UPWARDS OF AN HOUR OR
TWO AT A TIME DEPENDING ON THE SETUP.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY SUNRISE, LEADING TO LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. KUIN IS THE EXCEPTION, WHERE GUIDANCE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND MVFR
(AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR) CIGS STAYING IN PLACE.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-
RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT
CHARLES MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
SAINT CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MADISON IL-
MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL.
WFO LSX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page