151
FXUS63 KLSX 100354
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1054 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
TODAY HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY AS THE CWA REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS AXIS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE OUTFLOW FROM THE
COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE CWA. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWA IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-4000+ J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SUPPORT MICROBURSTS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION. OVERALL
COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED, BUT I
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) ONCE AGAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ONCE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE AREA. I HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH AS THE RAP PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER
12,000 FEET, SO ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF FLASH FLOODING. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST INTO THE THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE A LOW THREAT FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS MLCAPES
WILL REACH 1500-3000 J/KG WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PROFILES SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE LREF IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH THE BULK OF THE TROUGH STAYING NORTH OF THE
AREA, WE WILL ONLY SEE MODEST LIFT FROM THE THIS TROUGH AT BEST.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM MCSS MOVING INTO OUR AREA
THAT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY CAUSING A ROUND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL KEEP 60-80 POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS AS THE LREF IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE. THE HREF LPMM AMOUNTS ARE ALSO
SHOWING HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL MO ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE LREF HAS 30-60% OF IT MEMBERS
PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (WITH LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER PARTS OF THE DAY) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S WHICH IS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH AS THE NBM IQR AT ST. LOUIS THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY IS 5 DEGREES OR LESS.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING
STEADY TO GUSTY DURING THE DAY, BUT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK IN THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE IS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT, BUT THE
REGION WILL BE IN A LARGELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST WAITING FOR
A TRIGGER. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
UIN AND COU HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW IN THIS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS
BEING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD QUINCY. IF THESE
OCCUR THEY MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT AND COULD PRODUCE MORE
PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
KIMBLE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION
MO-SHELBY MO.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL.
WFO LSX
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