524
FXUS63 KLSX 030823
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
323 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
(30-40%) WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE DRY ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING DESPITE THE TROUGH AS THERE IS LITTLE
INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR IT TO ACT ON. THE RAP AND
NAM IS SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH WILL SUPPLY SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME. THIS IS THE SAME AREA
THAT WILL BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG, SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ALL IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA,
SO WITH WARM START AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY, WENT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S, WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
IT STILL LOOKS THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES BACK OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. RAIN CHANCES SHOW UP AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AS BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
BEGIN TO INCREASE (20%) OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH/FRONT AND IN THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF. THE CHANCES WILL INCREASE (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE LREF IS
SHOWING 30-40% OF ITS MEMBERS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AS THE
LREF CHANCES FOR SEEING >0.5" OVER THE CWA BY NEXT THURSDAY IS
<25%. LIKEWISE, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LOW THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID OCTOBER. THE NBM IQR
AT STL IS ONLY 1-3 DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THEN INCREASES TO 6-
10 DEGREES BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWING THAT THERE IS A SPREAD IN
THE MODELS AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS
AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SUS WITH BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW (10-15%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
BRC
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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