471
FXUS63 KLSX 300344
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1044 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER LINGERING RAIN ENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS WEEK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE STACKED, CUT-OFF CYCLONE THAT BROUGHT TODAY'S RAIN IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW HAVE BEEN
ADVECTING NOTABLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH
HAS IN TURN ERODED THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING AFTERNOON RAINFALL OVER SE MO AND SOUTHERN
IL SHOULD COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET, AND
WE'LL SEE CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL. THE CLEARING SKIES, COUPLED WITH
DECREASING NE WINDS, WILL ALLOW TONIGHT'S LOWS TO FALL ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE CYCLONE, WE'LL REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS ACROSS GUIDANCE THAT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR 0. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT PLENTY OF
MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE OF WHAT
WE'RE SEEING TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT AT
THIS TIME, STILL LOOK A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH FROST.
BSH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY, AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE RETURN RATHER MEAGER. ACCORDINGLY,
NBM PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE GENERALLY BELOW 10%,
THOUGH LREF PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SO WHILE I CAN'T RULE
OUT A LITTLE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY, I'VE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE PROBABILITIES AND THE FACT
THAT IF IT DOES RAIN, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL HOWEVER
BRING CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE SE CONUS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN AGAIN LOOK RATHER
LIMITED, SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
BSH
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS NOW PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE PERIPHERY OF OUR STACKED,
CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND WHILE THEIR SPEEDS WILL
VARY A BIT WITH TIME, THEY WILL BE ON A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND.
MRB
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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