745
FXUS63 KLSX 301144
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
644 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOST LIKELY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S STORM HAS BEEN BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE THE SHORT WAVE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT PASSES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS OF 35 TO 40
TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT (5-6KTS). PATCHY FROST WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED AND LOW LYING AREAS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE
WEAKEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR A STRONG DIURNAL WARM UP ON
FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. SHOULD SEE AROUND
20 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS
WAVE PHASES WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN, AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
DIGS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHICH MAY DRAW
ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LREF PEAKS OUT AT JUST UNDER 30% OF THE
MEMBERS THAT PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE OZARKS, THOUGH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL COMES FROM THE GEFS MEMBERS.
ALSO, LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS, THE LREF CONTINUES TO BE DRY FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS THE 20
POPS THAT THE NBM PAINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ARE REASONABLE, BUT ANY RAIN THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND INTERMITTENT.
ANOTHER COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH
MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. NBM TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI FALL BELOW FREEING FOR 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE LREF 25TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH MAKES ME SKEPTICAL. HOWEVER, BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C AT 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE SUBFREEZING LOWS SUNDAY MORNING RIDE
WITH THAT IN MIND.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK RIDGING NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND APPROACHING 70 BY WEDNESDAY. SEE LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WHICH BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page