202
FXUS63 KLSX 022253
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
453 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE VALUES
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ASIDE FROM
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, THANKS TO
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING, INCLUDING
THROUGHOUT THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA WHERE DENSE FOG IS RARE COMPARED
TO THE SURROUNDING AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS IN CHECK,
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MAIN STEM RIVER VALLEYS THAT CAN
REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. MEANWHILE, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME OZARK VALLEYS MAY SEE A BIT OF
PATCHY FROST. AFTER LAST NIGHT'S WIDESPREAD FREEZE, THOUGH, WE DON'T
EXPECT NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS FROM FROST.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, TOMORROW WILL KICK OFF
A STEADY WARMUP, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AREA-WIDE UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BRC
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE
PERSISTENCE OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
BY TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC-SCALE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS, WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. THE NEXT OF THESE
WAVES IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DRIVING MODEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY BRINGING OUR AFTERNOON READINGS INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S AREA-WIDE. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HUMIDITY PROJECTIONS FROM A FIRE WEATHER-PERSPECTIVE, ALTHOUGH
CURRENT RH PROJECTIONS REMAIN A BIT TOO HIGH TO WARRANT SERIOUS
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
WHILE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND,
ONCE AGAIN THIS FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH, IF
AT ALL, AND AS A RESULT, SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS TIME OF YEAR, PUTTING
OUR CURRENT FORECAST APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE ALSO
RELATIVELY NARROW THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WHICH BOLSTERED OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THESE VALUES.
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
DEEPER, MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
DRIVING MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AS A RESULT. WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS NORTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SHORTEN
THE WINDOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN, THUS PUTTING A CEILING ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AND STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE FRONT HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS IN RECENT RUNS IN SPITE OF
THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND ALSO SIGNIFICANT TIMING VARIANCE IN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. LIKEWISE, WHILE OUR
CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED SOMETIME
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS
LESS CERTAIN. MEANWHILE, MEAGER INSTABILITY PROJECTIONS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL OR EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE NOT
IDEAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE TROUGH,
BUT AS OF NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LIMITED.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, A COOLING TREND APPEARS LIKELY BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT, ALTHOUGH WE ALSO NOTE MUCH INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALTHOUGH AGAIN THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD SATURDAY ONWARD AND A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO PRODUCE A SMATTERING OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
BRC
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH. LLWS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SPEED SHEAR WILL BE UPWARDS OF 40 KTS, AND
AT THE ONSET THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 40 DEGREES, THOUGH
SHEAR WILL BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THE EVENING. LLWS IS MORE
LIKELY AT KUIN, KSUS, AND KJEF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
BETTER.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THE
AREA DRY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
DELIA
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page