951
FNUS73 KLSX 171217
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR CZAR TOWER ADMINISTRATIVE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
617 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON NOVEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR AT TIMES.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT. WHILE BREEZY
WINDS WILL HELP WITH VENTILATION, MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND A ROUND
OF SHOWERS A POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
THE BURN SITE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE, WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW (40
PERCENT).
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...15 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT
IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2 TO 5
MPH BY NOON. GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT
IGNITION...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
MPH BY NOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 2100 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /640 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...MARGINAL
/5640 M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM
SKY (%).........11 7 9 38 51 58
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 10 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 20 20
TEMP............45 54 59 60 59 55
RH..............40 30 25 26 29 41
20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 9 SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 17 19 20 21
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 2 SE 3 SE 3 SE 4 SE 4 SE 3
EYE LVL WND GST.6 8 8 9 9 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.7
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 17 S 18 S 18 SE 17 SE 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 19 31 34 15 10
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING . CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...19 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 10
MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1050 M/S-M).
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE NOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...18 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE
WEST AFTER NOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE
WEST AFTER NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9
TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1270 M/S-M) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD MAX (8120 M/S-M) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...19
REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM KISER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526067.0/LSX
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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