783
FXUS63 KLSX 192134
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
334 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE WARM FRONT CAUSING THIS
RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE
THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO
END FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT FROM ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AREA AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST CAMS
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, AND ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRINT OUT QPF
IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE CONSENSUS
OF THE CAMS FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH GAVE ME 60-
90% ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, TAPERING TO 20-50% FARTHER NORTH TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT
NORTH TO NEAR THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE GREAT PLAINS LOW
FINALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH SHUTS OFF
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FINALLY BRINGS AN END TO THE
RAIN. THE LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT RANGES FROM
AROUND 0.7 INCHES IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN TODAY, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. BOTH MODELS START SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MID-
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LOW BEGINS FILLING IN AND MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER MOVING THE NOW OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEN, A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH HIGHS
RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES MANIFEST THEMSELVES IN INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMP IQRS INCREASE FROM 3 DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND UP TO 7-8 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND UP TO 9-10 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. ONE THING LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN, THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT LOOKS MUCH COLDER, AND
TEMPERATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE OUR
WETTEST PERIOD BUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
PASSING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MAKE NARROWING DOWN THAT
WINDOW DIFFICULT. MOST MEMBERS OF THE LREF ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE
06Z-12Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME SO THE HIGHEST POPS (40%-60%) POPS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE NBM LOOK REASONABLE. THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM SCOURS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WEDNESDAY'S FROPA
SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDENING HOLE IN THE IFR STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH THAT HOLE
WILL SPREAD, AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO BE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE 18Z
TERMINAL FORECASTS. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE HOLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AT LEAST THROUGH PEAK HEATING TODAY (AROUND 20Z). HOWEVER,
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70/I-64 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BACK DOWN TO IFR. THE RAIN
MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BUT GUIDANCE IS
INCONCLUSIVE ON THIS POINT.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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