777
FXUS63 KLSX 212327
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
- THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND MILD..
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING
SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850-500MB TROUGH PASSES.
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ISN'T PARTICULARLY COLD. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER START TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, LOW CEILINGS MAY NOT
CLEAR/SCATTER UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM THERE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
IF THIS OCCURS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR WHICH WILL
ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY AND BETTER INSOLATION.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN. A SECOND, STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST, HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY
SIMILAR, HOWEVER THE DETAILS ARE DIFFERENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
STRONG CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY OUT OF THIS SECOND WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHICH TAKES THE REST OF THE WEEK TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE EC MAINTAINS AN OPEN, NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS AND CLOSES OFF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LEAD TO VERY DIFFERENT SURFACE LOW POSITIONS,
BUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE THRUST OF THE COLDER AIR INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY ARE STILL VERY CLOSE IN BOTH MODELS.
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURE
IQRS FROM THE LREF ARE ONLY 3-5 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS PRETTY TIGHT FOR DAYS 5 AND 6 JUST AFTER A
FROPA WHICH LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO WANE FRIDAY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURE IQRS SPREAD TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FRIDAY DUE TO STRONGER
RETURN FLOW WHICH WOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE QUICKLY IN SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE MORE
WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT RAINFALL HAS DEPARTED THE REGION, KUIN IS
EXPECTED TO SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
THE OTHER LOCAL SITES SEEING PERIODS OF MIST OR DRIZZLE. THROUGH
THE MORNING TOWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH, IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS IT
DOES SO. THE CURRENT TAFS ER ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS TREND, WITH CLEARING POTENTIALLY OCCURRING
AS EARLY AS MID MORNING
ELMORE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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