926
FXUS63 KLSX 220850
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
250 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT WITH TIME TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN
THE 50S BY AFTERNOON, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN A
BIT ON THE MILD SIDE (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S) AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GOSSELIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
(SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT IS A PACIFIC FRONT, SO THE AIR
MASS COMING IN WILL NOT USHER IN ANY COLD AIR. IN FACT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S (SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS) TO
MID 40S (CENTRAL MISSOURI).
(MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT)
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS ROUND OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE OF MUCH SHORTER
DURATION THAN THE EVENT THAT JUST ENDED LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
REALLY LIMIT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PROBABILITIES ON THE LREF FOR
AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAIN ARE NEAR 50%, BUT DROP BELOW 20% FOR AT LEAST
0.50" OF RAIN. ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH ON THE HEELS OF
YESTERDAY'S RAIN HOWEVER WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL AND COULD PUT
ANOTHER DENT TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
(TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP BRING IN A COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. CLUSTERS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN STILL SHOW MORE
SPREAD LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AND HOW COLD IT WILL BE IN/AROUND THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN TOWARD
A WEAKER/FASTER TROUGH EVOLUTION, WHICH WOULD MEAN ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THOSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. LOWS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS IS THAT IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF. THE LREF HAS 6-HR PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BELOW 10% THROUGH THURSDAY.
GOSSELIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA, WITH ONLY DRIZZLE AND MIST EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT ALL LOCAL SITES EXCEPT FOR KUIN. AT
KUIN, DRY AIR HAS BEGUN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, HELPING
IMPROVE CONDITIONS HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THIS TERMINAL WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, SO QUICK FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE REMAINING
LOCAL TERMINALS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE LOW CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL FOG WILL BE MORE STUBBORN TO ERODE, WITH IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
LATEST. ONCE SITES DO RETURN TO VFR, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELMORE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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