429
FXUS63 KLSX 272341
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
541 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THREATS OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DIP NEAR, OR EVEN JUST BELOW 0 ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A POTENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A DRASTIC CHANGE IN SEASON FOR US SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
US FOR DAYS IS FINALLY STARTING TO LIFT AND ERODE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCOMING TROUGH. EXPECT THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO LIFT/ERODE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES IT PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET OF OF 40-50
KNOTS WILL PUMP ANOMALOUS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING. MEAN MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z HREF SUGGEST 500-1000
J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE NOSE OF THAT LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WESTERN
IL. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL
IN IT, BUT SUSPECT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, HELPING TO SHARPEN A POTENT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TICK UPWARD WITH AVAILABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, WITH AT LEAST 250 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOW
LIKELY (50-60%) AND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ABOUT 20-30% LIKELY. THE
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY PROGS DEPICTING
UPWARDS OF 750 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE INTENSITY OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR A PRETTY QUICK
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MORE. WHILE INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT, I DO THINK WE WILL
HAVE JUST DEEP ENOUGH LINEAR CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY FROM EASTERN MO INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IL. 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONG, TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45-50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MESOVORTEX
CREATION AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LINEAR FEATURE THAT CAN
SURGE AND ORIENT MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADIENT WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS APPROACH 45 MPH
(ADVY CRITERIA) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT DID NOT QUITE HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY QUITE YET. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE
QUICK-MOVING FRONT, I DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLASH FREEZE ISSUES AS
ROADWAYS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE WE DIP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEITSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 50(!) DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PUSHED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEAVING DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY, A STARK
CONTRAST TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS!
FORTUNATELY, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS WILL
ALREADY BEGIN A SLOW RISE BY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO
THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
TEMPERATURE MODERATION, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
(ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY). WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER YET,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN DECREASES BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW DEEP THE NEXT TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME AND CONSEQUENTLY WHAT
ACCESS IT WILL HAVE TO ANOTHER ADDITIONAL BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
REVIEWING CLUSTER ANALYSES, IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ON THE DEEPER TROUGH/COLDER SOLUTION, WHICH IS WELL IN
LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM. THEREFORE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SEEM REASONABLE FOR NOW, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
NEARLY 20 DEGREES! FORTUNATELY, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES.
DEITSCH
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT ST. LOUIS METRO TERMINALS AND KUIN. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW QUICK THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS, BUT THE CURRENT TAF REFLECTS THE
MOST LIKELY TIMELINE. ADDITIONAL MVFR AND IFR (KUIN) CEILINGS ARE AT
LEAST FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF
THE DAY.
ASIDE FROM FOG AND STRATUS, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
STRONG PASSING COLD FRONT MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY,
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KUIN.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 37 KT VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PFAHLER
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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