627
FXUS63 KLSX 281713
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1113 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE'VE EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ISSUED AT 804 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WE'VE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WHILE INITIALLY MIXING ONLY OCCURS TO
ABOUT 925MB, A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR ENABLES DEEPER MIXING TO
850MB OR HIGHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH AT TIMES,
THOUGH THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN DURATION WITH
WINDS DECREASING MONDAY MORNING.
KIMBLE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
- STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING AND LESS
THAN 20 DEGREE WIND CHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDING A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN RATHER LIMITED AS THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MUCAPE IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MASS OF RAIN, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORMS. 50-60KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, MAINLY CAPABLE OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
PUSHES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A LULL MID-MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS ALONG THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT AROUND 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE CAP WILL
ALSO BE MINIMIZED. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST WITH 50-70KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR AND 40-50KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE
INSTABILITY WAS PREVIOUSLY THE CONDITIONAL INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, UNCERTAINTY HAS REDEVELOPED
IN WHETHER ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN
TO LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. REFLECTING THIS, MOST CAMS DEVELOP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THIS LIMITING FORCING IS
REALIZED, THIS WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT TO ELIMINATE THE SEVERE RISK
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THIS RECENT CHANGE, IT IS STILL POSSIBLE ENOUGH LIFT WILL
EXIST FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET, OR THAT
THE TROUGH IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS. IF ENOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT, ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE A RAPIDLY MOVING LINEAR SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SECTIONS TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN OUR
DRAMATIC COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
TWENTIES TONIGHT. LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS RAPIDLY MOVING
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT
WET SURFACES WILL DRY BEFORE THEY FREEZE. THE COLDEST PORTION OF
THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WON'T MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE
FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO SINGLE AND
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT, REACHING THEIR AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
DELIA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TUESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS
EAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BEGIN PULLING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION, WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW TO HANDLE AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND AS WELL AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. BUT AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES, THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES AS WELL AS WHERE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR
GOES. THE RESULT IS A CONTINUED 15-20 DEGREE INTERQUARTILE SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT A LACK OF MOISTURE AREA WIDE WILL KEEP THE REGION
LARGELY DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DELIA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING CENTRAL MO AND THE QUINCY AREAS AT
THIS HOUR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT THEY SHIFT TO THE WNW AND GUST EVEN STRONGER JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF IFR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER
NORTHWEST MO. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO LAST LONGEST IN THE NORTH
WHERE THEY MAY LAST INTO MONDAY, BUT FURTHER SOUTH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TO VFR.
THERE'S THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NEARS THE ST LOUIS AREA, BUT LATEST TRENDS
HAVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR THIS TO DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH ST LOUIS. THEREFORE WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED IN THE ST LOUIS AREA TAFS, THOUGH THERE'S STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR IT TO OCCUR.
KIMBLE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS
MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT
CHARLES MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON
MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-
GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE
IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
WFO LSX
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