348
FXUS63 KLSX 011749
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1149 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY (60-70%) CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH BY HOW MUCH IS UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH THE HREF SHOWS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A POST-FRONTAL BAND OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE NAM/GFS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH THE CAMS SHOWING LIGHT QPF OVER THIS REGION. WITH
NORTHEASTERLY DRY ADVECTION CUTTING INTO ANY AMOUNTS, I WILL KEEP
WITH THE NBM'S 20% POPS. THEREAFTER, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHILE THE LREF IS
SHOWING A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LESS THAN 10% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY OVER THE CWA.
AFTER THAT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS WILL STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S NEXT WEEK. THE LREF DOES SHOW SOME
SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NBM IQR SPREAD AT STL GOING
FROM 3-5 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND TO 10 DEGREES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE PICS SHOW SOME SLOW EROSION FROM THE SOUTH AND FROM THE
NORTHEAST, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS THROUGH SUNSET UNLESS THE CLEARING SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES
IN SPEED. BASES RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1000 FEET ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS, DOWN TO AROUND 200 FEET IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENTTO MAINLY LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN FALL TO
IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY
AGAIN IN CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 400
FEET.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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