013
FNUS73 KLSX 211614
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR TRUNKO LANE FIRE...QF/MDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1014 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS WINDS
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE WEST, THOUGH THEY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THAT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN AROUND 9PM. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF HIT OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING BEFORE SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO
TODAY. WHAT REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE AREA WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, KEEPING RH FROM GETTING TOO LOW.
VALUES AT ROUGHLY 35% ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO ONLY
AROUND 55% TONIGHT THANKS TO GUSTY WINDS KEEPING THE AIR MIXING.
RH WILL DROP TOMORROW BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WITH VALUES IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 30%. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SITE THROUGH THE REQUESTED PERIOD.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........40 AT IGNITION...MAX 46.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR
OF 0.4 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 3300 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL /4780 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/10480 M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........6 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 43 44 45 46 46 45 43 40 39 38 37
RH..............50 45 47 43 38 37 36 39 44 46 48 52
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 9 9 9 8 5 5 6 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 18 19 19 18 17 16 13 15 14 14
EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 3 3
EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 21 22 23 21 16 13 13 15 16 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..30 37 54 61 67 53 29 6 4 5 6 8
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR GD GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 21.
RH..................MAX 68 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.4 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
INCREASING TO 6 TO 7 MPH, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 8
TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (310 M/S-M).
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 41.
RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF
0.4 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 9
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (220 M/S-M).
FORECASTER...ELMORE
REQUESTED BY...BENNETT PETERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600774.0/LSX
.DELDT 01/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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