468
FXUS63 KLSX 270747
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF "WARM-UP" WILL LAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
EACH DAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST, AND WARMER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT.
BECAUSE OF THIS, WE'VE BEEN SEEING STEADY IF NOT RISING TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING, AND THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS HAVE ALREADY PASSED
DESPITE THE EARLY HOUR. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE MUCH MORE
NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MAY EVEN
SEE TEMPERATURES REACH OR EXCEED FREEZING WITH THE HREF GIVING A
30-60% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING SOUTH OF FARMINGTON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING, USHERING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. THIS AIRMASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS BRUTAL AS
WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS MORNING AS A RESULT, BUT INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS DAMPENED AND PREVENT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CHILLS. IN FACT, FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN TODAY IN SPITE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS OF 32+ DEGREES INCREASES TO 40-70% IN ALL OF MISSOURI SOUTH OF
I-70.
JAJA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE COLD IS PRETTY SOLIDLY CENTERED IN THE
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, THE COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH.
ENSEMBLES SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH, PEAKING AT
1046+ MB/>99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR -20C/<5TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WOULD
GIVE PARTS OF THE REGION A SOLID CHANCE (70%+) AT SEEING LOW
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS
UNDER -10 DEGREES. REGARDLESS OF EXACT VALUES, A RETURN TO
DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND IS A NEAR CERTAINTY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE THIS WEEK DESPITE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACCOMPANIES ONE OR SOME OF THESE FEATURES,
BUT THAT'S THE EXTENT OF ANY POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. THE MOST
TANGIBLE CHANCE FOR SNOW WE HAVE IS ON SUNDAY (10-20%), BUT DETAILS
ARE NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME RANGE.
JAJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WILL GUST BETWEEN 18-24 KNOTS AT TIMES.
BRITT
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BOND
IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-
MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-
WASHINGTON IL.
WFO LSX
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