011
FXUS63 KLSX 131943
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
143 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN WILL START UP SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY PERIOD FOR MOST.
-A WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO PEAK NEAR 60 DEGREES. OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD IN STEP WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
JUST COMING ONSHORE OVER BAJA. RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ENHANCED BY THE ASSOCIATED
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS GROWING IN HOW FAR NORTH THE BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL
PUSH. HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE LATEST RUNS, KEEPING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM RECEIVING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING FOR
DAYS AT A RATHER SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS MAY OCCUR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MORE
THAN 0.25" OF RAIN (30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE), WHILE JUST SOUTH OF
THE HWY 36/I-72 CORRIDOR, RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH A
70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.25". THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WHERE THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2" (VIA THE 24 HR HREF LPMM) ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE
WARM FRONT STALLS OVER THE CWA AND LIFT IS LOCALLY ENHANCED, MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER 10+ HOURS ONTO DRY SOIL,
KEEPING FLOODING CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STUNTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION, RESULTING IN HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S.
DELIA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ITS WAKE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
WHILE A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS INCLUDES THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
DEEP MIXING ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP LOCALLY WARM TEMPERATURES, ADDING
A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AN ALREADY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEEK. PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
HAVE A 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70F WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, HIGHS HAVE A 60-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 65F.
AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS,
BRINGING A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE,
RESULTING IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TRUE COLD FRONT, STARTING A RELATIVE
COOLING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BOTH OF WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DELIA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF RAIN THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. AS RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD, CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE MID-MISSOURI
TERMINALS (KCOU, KJEF) AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TERMINALS (KSTL,
KSUS, KCPS) WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN IMPACTS TO KUIN, AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT RAIN WILL BE LIGHTER OR EVEN LARGELY ABSENT IN THIS AREA. DUE
TO THIS AND THE LATER TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE RAIN AT KUIN IF IT
OCCURS, HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF RA OUT OF THIS TAF FOR NOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW MORNING.
DELIA
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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