022
FXUS63 KLSX 141729
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
-A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI IS MAKING
SLOW, BUT STEADY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEAST CLOSER TO OUR CENTRAL
MISSOURI COUNTIES VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS AIDED BY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHAT LOOKS DIFFERENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON MOST
GUIDANCE TENDS TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS NOW WHERE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IN MISSOURI, WHERE THE LPMM OF
THE HREF SHOWS TOTALS MAY APPROACH 2". TOTALS OVER 0.50" ARE STILL
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PROBABILITIES ON THE HREF >50%
ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS, MO TO PITTSFIELD, IL LINE. AS WAS
DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, THIS PROLONGED (15-21 HOURS) AND LARGELY STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING
DRYNESS/DROUGHT. MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT LIKELY WILL BE
ABSORBED BY SOILS, BUT I DO EXPECT RUNOFF TO INCREASE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN/NEAR THE HEAVIER CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING FLOWS ON LOCAL CREEKS/STREAMS AND GET
THEM RUNNING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. DECREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED EVEN IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
GOSSELIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND 850-HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE +10C. THE WARMEST
PERIOD SHOULD BE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ABOVE 60
DEGREES ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, WITH SOME 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 70+ READINGS ON THE NBM REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY
(60-80%) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TO GET HUNG UP NORTH OF US. AS A RESULT,
THURSDAY HAS TRENDED A BIT WARMER. IN FACT, IT IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ENDS UP ON THURSDAY. BOTH
THE 75TH/90TH PERCENTILES ON THE NBM AT MANY LOCATIONS ARE ACTUALLY
WARMER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS, IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE HIGHS
ON THE NBM ARE RUNNING 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS MAY
EVEN BE THREATENED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATE BEING ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER DAILY RECORDS
THAT DAY (KSTL: 74F/1971, KCOU: 71F/2017, KUIN: 68F/2017). FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON DAILY RECORD HIGHS, PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE BI-STATE AREA BY FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD HELP COOL OFF TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS LITTLE/NO CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT STAYS UP ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD
OF TIME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM) EXIST THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.
GOSSELIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS LOWER
CEILINGS DEVELOP AND RAIN EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASES IN
INTENSITY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS RAIN WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN 2
AND 5SM BUT BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
LONGEST DURATION AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL BE BROADLY ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WITH KUIN EXPECTED TO SEE A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD
OF LIGHTER RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY AS CEILINGS
SCATTER AND LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
PFAHLER
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS BETWEEN TUESDAY 2/17 AND THURSDAY 2/19 AT OUR
THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS:
TUESDAY 2/17 WEDNESDAY 2/18 THURSDAY 2/19
KSTL 77/1911 74/1971 77/2016
KCOU 74/2011 71/2017 77/2017
KUIN 72/2017 68/2017 72/2017
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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