653
FXUS63 KLSX 142049
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
249 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY THREATENING DAILY RECORDS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE PROXIMITY OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MO. MOST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT THIS LOW-LEVEL FORCING PIVOTING ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, FOCUSING THE "HEAVIEST" RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EVEN A BREAK IN RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AS
A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ENCROACHES. THE LATEST HREF LPMM SUPPORTS
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2" IN THESE AREAS, BUT THE LACK OF HIGH
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAKE FLASH
FLOODING UNLIKELY. SOME PONDING COULD OCCUR IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ALONG WITH RISES IN CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS, BUT THIS
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE BENEFICIALLY ABSORBED BY SOILS. ELSEWHERE
IN THE CWA, HREF PROBABILITIES OF 0.5"+ OF TOTAL RAINFALL ARE AT
LEAST 70 PERCENT, EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL
IL WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE. RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE AND END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MOST FORCING QUICKLY BECOMES
REFOCUSED ACROSS THAT REGION.
ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL AROUND
SUNRISE WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER/CLEAR
THROUGH MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR IS ENTRAINED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY (TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S F), INCREASING
INSOLATION, AND MINIMAL CAA; HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-
50S TO LOW-60S F, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR.
PFAHLER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PERMIT A WARMING TREND
AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WAA THAT PERSISTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE NBM INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON THE LOW-60S TO NEAR 70 F BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT 850-
HPA WILL BE WARMEST ON TUESDAY, NEARING THE MAXIMUM OF SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS TO LIMIT
INSOLATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM ACTUALLY REACHING 850 HPA.
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET AGREED UPON, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AROUND 80 PERCENT OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP HAS THIS FROPA BEING
DRY WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONGEST FORCING
PASSING TO THE NORTH. INSTEAD, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT, MAY
ACTUALLY BE ITS POST-FRONTAL MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS THAT ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, COMBINED WITH DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION. AS SUCH, NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 70+ F HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY,
REACHING 60 TO 90 PERCENT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. ADDITIONALLY,
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE THREATENED. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WITH JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
WINDS 10+ MPH AND RH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT AS HIGH AS 40 TO 60
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA (HIGHEST IN NORTHEASTERN MO/WEST-
CENTRAL IL. SO METEOROLOGICAL SPEAKING, CONDITIONS COULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, BUT THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW DORMANT/DEAD VEGETATION DRIES OUT AFTER
TODAY'S SOAKING RAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGES THURSDAY ONWARD WITH WIDELY
VARIED DEPICTIONS ON ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY--NAMELY ITS TIMING AND STRUCTURE
(AMPLITUDE AND PHASE). THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT HAVE THE POTENTIAL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT THERE
IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH (SPATIALLY AND
AMOUNTS). ENSEMBLE MODEL-DERIVED PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN
24 HOURS ARE 30 TO 60 PERCENT FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MOISTURE RETURN
COULD BE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LESS CERTAIN WITH THE NBM
INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE RANGE EXPANDING TO 10 F THURSDAY ONWARD,
BUT THERE IS STILL A COOLING TREND PRESENT BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE IS STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
PFAHLER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS LOWER
CEILINGS DEVELOP AND RAIN EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASES IN
INTENSITY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS RAIN WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN 2
AND 5SM BUT BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
LONGEST DURATION AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL BE BROADLY ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WITH KUIN EXPECTED TO SEE A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD
OF LIGHTER RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY AS CEILINGS
SCATTER AND LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
PFAHLER
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS BETWEEN TUESDAY 2/17 AND THURSDAY 2/19 AT OUR
THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS:
TUESDAY 2/17 WEDNESDAY 2/18 THURSDAY 2/19
KSTL 77/1911 74/1971 77/2016
KCOU 74/2011 71/2017 77/2017
KUIN 72/2017 68/2017 72/2017
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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