592
FXUS63 KLSX 160504
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1104 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN MO AND
SOUTHWESTERN IL.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY THREATENING DAILY RECORDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
STRATOCUMULUS HAS CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN MO AND
SOUTHWESTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
60 F WHERE IT IS NOW CLOUD-FREE. THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A SMATTERING OF 30
TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MI, BUT
CONCEPTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHWESTERN IL SHOULD BE MOST
FAVORABLE WITH LATEST CLEARING AND A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE
POSITIONED THERE TONIGHT. THE SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG IS STILL VARIED,
BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG APPEAR POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN MO AND
SOUTHWESTERN IL. ELSEWHERE, FOG MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO RIVER VALLEYS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACTUALLY INCREASES BEFORE SUNRISE, FAVORING
MORE LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND PLACING THE REGION FIRMLY WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
ARE PROJECTED TO EXCEED THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR BOTH DAYS, IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70, DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER
AND SHALLOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON TUESDAY THAN MONDAY.
PFAHLER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NAVIGATING THIS FLOW.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, FORCING A PSEUDO-DRYLINE
OR PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE PULLING TO THE
NORTH, BUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERSHIP HAS A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST-CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF 0.10"+ OF RAINFALL
ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT, SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL BE MUCH DRIER, BUT WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STRONG INSOLATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER IN ITS WAKE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S F. THIS
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE PAST THAT HAVE RESULTED IN
OVERACHIEVING TEMPERATURES AND VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
MENTIONED ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, THREATENING DAILY RECORDS.
JOINT PROBABILITIES OF WINDS 10+ MPH AND RH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT ARE
50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO/WEST-CENTRAL IL, INDICATING
THAT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME METEOROLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THERE. THIS PART OF THE CWA ALSO RECEIVED LESS THAN
0.25" IN THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT DORMANT
VEGETATION WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND DECREASE CONFIDENCE THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH THE LOWEST RH
(TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TO TRACK TO ITS
PREDECESSOR, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON ITS EXACT TRACK, TIMING,
AND AMPLITUDE. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
PSEUDO-DRY LINE OR PACIFIC FRONT PASSING SOMETIME ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN
NORTHWARD, ENSEMBLE MODEL PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE
40 TO 70 PERCENT ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AND MUCAPE) HAVE BEEN CREEPING UPWARD AND ARE
NOW 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR 250+ J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN
IL, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR, NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON SIMILAR
VALUES TO WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
A STRONGER, SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A COOL DOWN FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE BY THAT TIME AS WELL, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE
MODEL MEMBERSHIP HAS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MEMBERSHIP ALSO
HAS THE CWA REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DETACHED FROM COLD ENOUGH
AIR FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH PROBABILITIES, OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. NBM INTERQUARTILE
TEMPERATURE RANGES EXPAND TO AROUND 10 F OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE OR
COOL FURTHER.
PFAHLER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CWA WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES OBSERVED IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND IN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED IN THESE PORTIONS OF IL AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST MO TONIGHT,
WITH AN ADVISORY LASTING UNTIL 10AM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING, AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JAJA
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK. HERE ARE RECORDS BETWEEN TUESDAY 2/17 AND THURSDAY 2/19 AT OUR
THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS:
TUESDAY 2/17 WEDNESDAY 2/18 THURSDAY 2/19
KSTL 77/1911 74/1971 77/2016
KCOU 74/2011 71/2017 77/2017
KUIN 72/2017 68/2017 72/2017
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON MO-
JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-
SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLINTON IL-MARION
IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WFO LSX
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