027
FXUS63 KLSX 192350
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
550 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. WE WARM UP AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END
TO OUR SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
AND 30S WITH WIND CHILLS UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO GUSTY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTH OF I-70 AND THE UPPER
40S/50S SOUTH OF I-70.
JAJA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE DUE TO
TODAY'S COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS. OUR GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD REGARDING CHANCES.
THEY NOW SIT AT 10-20% FOR 0.01" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION CENTERED
SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS. THE COLDER AIR IS
NOT COLLOCATED WITH THIS POTENTIAL, EITHER, SO VERY LIGHT SNOW ISN'T
THE GUARANTEED P-TYPE. IF IT DOES OCCUR, WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY MELT. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH IN FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GIVEN THE RAZOR THIN (3-4 DEGREES IN MID-WINTER FOR 3 STRAIGHT DAYS
IS VERY IMPRESSIVE) SPREAD IN THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE. EACH DAY
WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER, STARTING IN THE 40S FOR MOST ON
SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S FOR MOST ON MONDAY. THE
SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL, WITH 20S
AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING. WE
BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD OF THE PATTERN. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IMMEDIATELY
APPARENT WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF >50 DEGREES REACHING 70-100%
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON TUESDAY AND >55 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AS MORE
SHORTWAVES ENTER THE FORECAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY ONWARD IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
JAJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
00-01Z THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEFORE 03-04Z. OTHERWISE, A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-30KTS WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KTS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES DOWN TO
1500-2000 FT AGL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-70
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CARNEY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-DENT MO-FRANKLIN
MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-OSAGE MO-
REYNOLDS MO-WASHINGTON MO.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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