115
FNUS73 KLSX 281435
FWSLSX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCKCASTLE CREEK RX...IDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
835 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS WILL BE TRICKY TO
FORECAST TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE TRAVERSING EASTWARD OVER THE
BURN AREA. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN NO RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THESE LIGHT RETURNS,
INDICATING THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
RIGHT NOW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE RAIN SHOWERS IN WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY, AND SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE. IF A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER MOVES
OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND LEADING TO LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING ALOFT WILL ALSO WORK TO RAISE NEAR
SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES QUICKLY.
CURRENTLY, SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST WITH
VALLEY LOCATIONS CALM AND VARIABLE. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORCASTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERLY BY LATER THIS EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID/LOW 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BY TOMORROW MORNING THAT WILL SLOWLY TURN NORTHEASTLERY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON SUNDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH OR LESS AT IGNITION...
OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS.
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE MAX 1800 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 9 TO
12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /1560 M/S-M/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR /2470
M/S-M/.
TIME (CST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM
SKY (%).........28 28 67 79 80 77
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RAIN RAIN NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............55 62 66 66 62 59
RH..............45 35 34 38 50 60
20 FT WIND......E 6 SE 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.11 11 10 11 10 11
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 3 SE 3 S 3 S 3 S 3 S 3
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.5
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 SE 8 S 12 S 10 S 12 SW 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 12 16 11 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE EVENING.
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 15
TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (660 M/S-M).
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
CWR.................2 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 47.
RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH DECREASING TO
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3 USED.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2780 M/S-M) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR MAX (6550 M/S-M) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...PEINE/MAPLES
REQUESTED BY...BLAKE BAUM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604307.0/LSX
.DELDT 02/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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