878
FXUS63 KLSX 071051
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
451 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK. THE COLD FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SO THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND WILL LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSEQUENTLY, CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CAUSING HIGHS TODAY TO BE 10 TO 25
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 60S WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LREF
IS SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH TODAY WHICH GOES ALONG WITH EACH OF THE
DETERMISTIC MODELS SHOWING A MORE PHASED SOLUTION. THERE IS
CONSISTENCY WITH THE NBM AS IT KEEPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS (70-90%) AND THE LREF HAS THE SAME
PERCENTAGE OF ITS MEMBERS PRODUCING RAIN AT ST. LOUIS FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS THE LREF IS
SHOWING SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE ATTENDANT FRONT WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN IN THE 50S AND 60S LATE NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH INTENSITY WANING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LINES UP FROM CENTRAL MO TERMINALS THROUGH THE
METRO TERMINALS FROM ISSUANCE OF THIS UPDATE THROUGH ABOUT 11Z.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MIX OF
MVFR/VFR OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DRAW IN DRIER
AIR.
MAPLES
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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