645
FXUS63 KLSX 071732
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1132 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK. THE COLD FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SO THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND WILL LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSEQUENTLY, CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CAUSING HIGHS TODAY TO BE 10 TO 25
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 60S WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FULL SUNSHINE.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LREF
IS SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH TODAY WHICH GOES ALONG WITH EACH OF THE
DETERMISTIC MODELS SHOWING A MORE PHASED SOLUTION. THERE IS
CONSISTENCY WITH THE NBM AS IT KEEPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS (70-90%) AND THE LREF HAS THE SAME
PERCENTAGE OF ITS MEMBERS PRODUCING RAIN AT ST. LOUIS FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS THE LREF IS
SHOWING SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE ATTENDANT FRONT WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN IN THE 50S AND 60S LATE NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLIER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WHICH DOES RAISE THE CONCERNS FOR
FOG. GUIDANCE ISN'T REALLY HITTING IT TOO HARD, THOUGH I WOULD BE
MOST CONCERNED ABOUT RIVER VALLEYS IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THIS IS WHERE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP. LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LOTS OF EXTRA SURFACE-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DID NOT ADD TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET, BUT KSUS FOLLOWED BY
KJEF/KCPS ARE MOST PRONE TO SEEING FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING.
GOSSELIN
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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