668
FXUS63 KLSX 081719
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME
VALLEY FOG OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT. THIS IS IN THE SAME AREA THAT THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING LIGHT WINDS IN A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
WINDOW THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE FOR THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
BEFORE BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEFORE THEN, THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE HREF HAS THE UPPER
PATTERN SWITCHING TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH NONE OF ITS MEMBERS
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND PLENTY OF SUN, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND 70S ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING UP
TO 850MB ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SITES TO APPROACH RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
BRITT
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST
RUNS ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY ON AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE LREF IS SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
WITH 60-90% OF ITS MEMBERS HAVING SBCAPE >1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY
AT THE SAME TIME 40-60% OF IT MEMBERS HAVE >40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH WILL
CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS, LARGE HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR, BUT THIS AREA WILL BE LARGELY CAPPED. AS THE LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LREF CONTINUING TO SHOW 70-90% OF ITS MEMBERS
PRODUCING RAIN AT ST. LOUIS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LREF IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-60% OF ITS MEMBERS HAVING
MORE THAN 1" OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THEN ENTIRE AREA. WITH
THE UPPER FLOW PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THAT PWATS BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES GIVEN SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING LATE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS
LOOK LIKELY AREAWIDE ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
GOSSELIN
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED BOTH ON MONDAY 3/9
AND TUESDAY 3/10. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR EACH DAY FROM OUR
OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES:
MONDAY 3/9 TUESDAY 3/10
KSTL 80F (1925) 86F (1955)
KCOU 80F (1986) 82F (1955)
KUIN 75F (1986) 79F (1955)
GOSSELIN
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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