280
FXUS63 KLSX 101750
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO/WEST-CENTRAL IL IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS LIKELY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY, AND STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR RECORD LEVELS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAP AND GFS ARE
SHOWING ~2500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, WITH 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOLID AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE, SO
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE IMPRESSIVE CAPE PROFILES AND KINEMATICS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR
UPDRAFTS TO PUNCH THROUGH. INDEED, MOST GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS OUR
FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH DRAGS THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. I'M
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY REMOVE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING JUST YET, HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IF STORMS DO FORM, ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED HAIL, AS WELL
AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER, CAMS AREN'T SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAINING. WPC HAS DOWNGRADED OUR AREA TO
"MARGINAL" FROM "SLIGHT" IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CARNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT
INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS FRIDAY WHERE IT STALLS AND THEN MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM'S FRONT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70
ON FRIDAY AND FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. OF COURSE
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT MAKE THESE TEMPERATURE
RANGES UNCERTAIN WITH BOTH THE NBM AND LREF SHOWING 8-10 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IQRS BOTH DAYS.
ANOTHER, MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PUSHES A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE POST-FRONTAL, WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
RAIN SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES DROP
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME WET FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN AND SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS CAN OCCUR. A COLD/DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JANUARY'S NORMALS THAN
MID MARCH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING AND
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CARNEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING QUINCY (KUIN) WHICH HAS OBSERVED SOME TRANSIENT
MVFR CIGS. A STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE MISSOURI/
IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GENERAL TIMELINE AND THINKING FOR THE TAFS CAN
BE FOUND BELOW:
THIS AFTERNOON: NO PRECIPITATION AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH PEAK GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 KT.
THIS EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START NORTHEAST OF QUINCY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WAS OVER SOUTH/ CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE KANSAS/ MISSOURI BORDER LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN IGNITE ALONG THE COLD FRONT (MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION POTENTIALLY BEING KUIN), WITH
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KANSAS/ MISSOURI BORDER
ACCELERATING NORTHEAST. THE TAFS WERE BASED ON THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING FROM THE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER
KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT THE KCOU/ KJEF TERMINALS
(BETWEEN 4Z AND 7Z) AND THEN PROGRESS TOWARDS KSTL/ KSUS AND KCPS
(BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST AND
SOUTH THESE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT. GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITES ARE LIKELY DURING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST WITH POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. THE MAIN THREAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS WITH 20 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SLOW TO RECOVERY TO VFR WILL OCCUR MAINLY
AFTER 18Z.
BAH
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
TODAY 3/10
KSTL 86F (1955)
KCOU 82F (1955)
KUIN 79F (1955)
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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