268
FXUS63 KLSX 130518
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1218 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MO. SPC'S 15% AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES SOUTHWEST MO.
- BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDES INCREASING WINDS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
15-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE HREF MEAN 10M WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO OVER 40 MPH AFTER 8 PM, PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WFO ILX
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS MO. THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF ST LOUIS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE A BIT AS WE ARE STILL FOUR
DAYS OUT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
IN THE 500-1000J/KG AND 50-60KT RANGES, RESPECTIVELY.
AFTER THE COLD FROST PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
(GENERALLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW RIGHT NOW.) GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO). MONDAY WILL FEEL LIKE A CHANGE BACK TO WINTER WITH
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND RELATIVELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK, WITH A SLOW
WARM UP EXPECTED. A RETURN TO 60S AND 70S IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
WFO ILX
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY AND VFR THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG THROUGH MID-
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THIS IMPACT AT KCOU AND KJEF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ELMORE
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
MARION MO-SHELBY MO.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-LINCOLN MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
CALHOUN IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL.
WFO LSX
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