984
FXUS63 KLSX 311729
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LIKE YESTERDAY
MORNING WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND YESTERDAY'S
RAINFALL, VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE SO FAR AT SUS
AND CPS, BUT HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK UP TO 10 MILES. WITH THE
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND THE RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT, I SUSPECT ANY DENSE
FOG WILL STAY PATCHY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS A STRONG CAPE GRADIENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADDITION TO THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST, AND MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND SUPPLY DECENT ASCENT OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH THEY ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
TODAY CAUSING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS EVENING THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE
ROUNDS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SPC MARGINAL RISK WITH UP TO 1" HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS,
THOUGH THE COVERAGES AN SEVERITY OF STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND
1.8" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 10K FEET.
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION EXITING THE
CWA BY 12Z ON MONDAY. BOTH THE RAP/GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT
LINGERING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DURING THE
DAY WITH SUFFICIENT CAP/SHEAR TO BRING THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BEGINNING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY WHEN MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS. THE LREF IS SHOWING 40-60% OF ITS MEMBERS
PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE CWA BY SATURDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY COOL DOWN TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN 80S THIS WEEK AS THEY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE METRO
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEAKEN WITH TIME/EASTWARD
EXTENT. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY TEND TO BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS (TIMING, LONGEVITY, AREAS IMPACTED) IS
NOT VERY HIGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE KCOU/KJEF HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. THIS IS WHERE THE STORMS MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER, SO EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER CORES AND POSSIBLY
SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
OUT FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
GOSSELIN
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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