342
FXUS63 KLSX 011741
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ONE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND SEVERITY EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS MISSOURI. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI DEVELOP A COLD POOL WHICH COULD
CAUSE UPSCALE GROWTH ACROSS THE CWA INTO A LINE SEGMENT BRINGING
SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE
CURRENT 1000-2500 MLCAPES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STORM
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE CURRENT PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS, PARTICULARLY IF THEY CAN TRAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR
VERY LONG.
THE CAMS INCLUDING THE HRRR HAVE THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10 AM. IT WILL LAY OUT OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS FROM
FARMINGTON THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG
WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING ON AS THE HREF IS SHOWING
THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RECOVER
BACK INTO THE 80S BEHIND THIS MORNING'S STORMS BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BRITT
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTH, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
BRITT
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS. DIURNAL CUMULUS BASES WILL BE BELOW 3 KFT AGL
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FEW-SCT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING - TUESDAY.
GOSSELIN
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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