641
FXUS63 KLSX 210723
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
223 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY,
AS OF 06Z (1AM), A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV)
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE STATE OF KS, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO. THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH IS BEING MAINTAINED BY A
STRONG (50+KT) LOW-LEVEL JET, IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN INITIATED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS TRAVERSING
THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH HAS ALSO SPARKED THE FORMATION OF A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE CYCLONE THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE MCV.
AS THE MCV PUSHES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AROUND 12Z
(7AM) THIS MORNING, A STRONG LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING (<500 J/KG
MUCAPE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THE GREATEST THREAT WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO
60MPH, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG ANY BOWING/SURGING SEGMENTS THAT
MAY FORM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
A WARM CLOUD LAYER >12,000FT WILL BE PRESENT, FAVORING WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. ALSO WITH PWATS NEAR 2", THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL MAKERS, AND CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1-2+"/HR
RANGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL AS THE CENTER
OF THE MCV SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THOSE AREAS.
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE MCV IS FORECAST TO BE SLIDING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO WESTERN IL. AN INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALSO,
WITHIN THE MCV AND VICINITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE, LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH BECOMES ENHANCED, LEADING TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. WITH RICH MOISTURE AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS,
STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SURGES WITH MESOVORTICES
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF LOW/MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
AS A RESULT, THE GREATEST THREATS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ARE TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS INCLUDES A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS REMAIN RELATIVELY ORGANIZED AND
SUSTAINED ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV ALONG WITH
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SERVE AS
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE, WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAPPEN NEAR THESE FEATURES, PERHAPS SOMEWHERE FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST MO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR (>30KTS), THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT REMAINS
DEPENDENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. LASTLY,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE THREAT AREA
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO, WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE FORECAST BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT, TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
GUIDANCE REVEALS THE SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT,
WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING,
BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
AN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND MAY SUPPORT SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL
CAA TAKING HOLD ON MONDAY ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL STRATUS, A COOLER
DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
PEINE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN A STRETCH OF LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY SEND A
COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THIS FEATURE WOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN SOMETIME MID-WEEK, WITH 20-40% CHANCES BEING REVEALED BY THE
LATEST LREF. GENERALLY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S LOOK TO PREVAIL, WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE LREF, WHICH
HAS NARROW 3-5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IQR SPREAD THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. CURRENTLY,
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE RAINFALL, SOMETIME
FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SIGNAL FOR A WARMING TREND
ALSO APPEARS NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO WHEN LREF
TEMPERATURES IQR SPREADS INCREASE TO 10 DEGREES, INDICATING MORE
VARIABILITY.
PEINE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
DURING THE PERIOD. AT UIN, SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 08Z AND
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 14-20Z AND MAY LINGER THROUGH 00Z WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 16-20Z. AT COU/JEF, ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN 13-19Z WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE BETWEEN 22-24Z. AT THE ST. LOUIS AREA TERMINALS,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 15-19Z WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE BETWEEN 22-02Z. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AND THEN
VEER OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH MVFR (POSSIBLE IFR) CEILINGS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
BRITT
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
FRANKLIN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-SAINT
LOUIS MO.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CRAWFORD MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-GASCONADE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN
MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO.
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON
IL-MONTGOMERY IL.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CLINTON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-SAINT CLAIR
IL-WASHINGTON IL.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN
IL-PIKE IL.
WFO LSX
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