619
FXUS63 KLSX 251752
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THOSE WHO SEE RAIN WILL EXPERIENCE THE COOLEST CONDITIONS.
- THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (60-80%) THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SWIRL OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST, A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING WITH IT WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
AND A TONGUE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS COMBINATION HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO IN NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. WHAT FALLS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH, IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER IN NATURE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST AND MUCAPE VALUES FAIL TO REACH EVEN 50 J/KG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST TODAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY UNDERCUT
SHOWERS AND MAKE IT HARDER FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN AFFECTED
AREAS DAMPENED TODAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS BREAK MORE FREQUENTLY,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EVEN HAVE A CHANCE (10-20%) OF REACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
ERODING SOUTHERN RIDGE BRINGS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO OUR CWA. THE ARRIVAL OF MORE VORTICITY LOBES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. A LUCKY FEW MAY EVEN
HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO 100-200 J/KG. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI,
NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AGAIN, RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT DUE TO 1) PROXIMITY TO
MOISTURE AND FORCING AND 2) LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN. THIS TIME,
THAT AREA ENCAPSULATES MOST OF CENTRAL AND MISSOURI NORTH OF I-70 AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY LOW
TO MID-70S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE (20-40%) OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF DRY. BY TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SWINGING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE BEGIN TO BUILD AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SUCH
AS THE AMOUNT OF VORTICITY LOBES THAT ARE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLES ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC REGARDING OUR RAINFALL
CHANCES. BOTH THE NBM AND LREF 24 HR PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REACH 90% IN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS WASHED OUT GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
DISCREPANCIES AND LOW MODEL RESOLUTION, IT DOES INCREASE CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER NEGATE EACH
OTHER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A REGION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MO AND TO THE NORTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MO, BUT ARE FIGHTING DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) THAT LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACT KCOU/KJEF AND
KUIN THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR VISBYS WHERE
THE HEAVIER POCKETS HAPPEN. MVFR/VFR CUMULUS HAS FORMED THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT CEILINGS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (30-50%) ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL. LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS FOR RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TOMORROW.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JAJA
LONG TERM...JAJA
AVIATION...PEINE
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