666
FXUS61 KLWX 161955
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, A WARM FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EASTWARD EARLY TUESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MD, AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE. VISIBILITY WILL RANGE FROM ONE-
QUARTER MILE TO 1 MILE IN THESE PLACES. AT TIMES, A FEW PLACES
WILL DROP TO 0 STATUTE MILES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MID-EVENING THIS
EVENING. AFTERWARDS, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL
PRECEDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL FORM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW
AND AHEAD OF AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
TUESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPING WIND AND LIMITED COLD AIR SHOULD
BE THE FACTORS THAT CREATE SUCH A COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES. THIS SAME DOWNSLOPING WIND MAY ACTUALLY BE THE
CAUSE AS TO WHY PERHAPS SOME OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY MAY NOT ENCOUNTER RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX DEVELOP
IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MD AND EASTERN WV PANHANDLE INTO
FAR NORTHERN VA IF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FAST ENOUGH INTO
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
DECEMBER. GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WILL OCCUR
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE
ANOTHER DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE ENDED BY THURSDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME
CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DUNK THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO A BITTER COLD AIR
MASS AS IT DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
"WARMEST" TEMPERATURES OF THE EXTENDED WOULD BE ON THURSDAY, IN THE
40S FOR MOST AND 20-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER BURST OF UPSLOPE SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT THERE HAS
BEEN DISAGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. PRECIP COULD MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
REGARDLESS, AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO THE TEENS AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BOARD,
AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS
COULD KNOCK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OFF THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WIND
CHILLS.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SIMILAR CEILINGS WITH LIFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GRADUALLY
TURNING FROM NE TO SE. AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND SUB-VFR CIGS COULD RETURN.
MARINE
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
MUCH GIVEN A LINGERING NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS MAY REQUIRE AND ADVISORY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER BURST
OF GUSTY NW FLOW AND POSSIBLE SCAS ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KLW/CAS
MARINE...KLW/CAS
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