185
FXUS61 KLWX 170753
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD EARLY TODAY. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WESTERLY, AND FAVOR DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
ALLEGHENIES. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST
TODAY, WITH LOW 60S ACROSS CENTRAL VA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE DOES HAVE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, WV TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY, MD.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT, SO IF FOG
FORMS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOP IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MD AND EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHERN VA IF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FAST
ENOUGH INTO THE COLD AIR IN PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF 12-15Z FROM
WEST TO EAST. DEFINITELY A THREAD THE NEEDLE KIND OF THREAT, BUT
ANY FREEZING RAIN IS HAZARDOUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NEAR THE METROS TO UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH NEAR WESTERN MARYLAND.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-DECEMBER. GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS.
NOTABLY COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS, IF NOT A TAD BELOW NORMAL. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY DIGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO END THE
WEEK, WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ALSO TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES.
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IS POSSIBLE, SOME VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 20S, THEN WIDESPREAD TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH SHOULD AID IN
LIFTING CIGS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO
GENERALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY BE A FEW SCA GUSTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, BUT THINKING IS
THEY ARE SPORADIC ENOUGH THEY COULD BE HANDLED WITH AN MWS.
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH/EAST WINDS FRIDAY QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 25-
30 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, THEN WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCA LEVELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CPB/KRR
MARINE...CPB/KRR
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