200
FXUS61 KLWX 171519
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1019 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN WV OVERNIGHT, SO IF FOG FORMS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOP IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MD AND EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHERN VA IF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FAST
ENOUGH INTO THE COLD AIR IN PLACE EARLY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF 12-15Z FROM
WEST TO EAST. DEFINITELY A THREAD THE NEEDLE KIND OF THREAT, BUT
ANY FREEZING RAIN IS HAZARDOUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NEAR THE METROS TO UPWARDS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH NEAR WESTERN MARYLAND.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-DECEMBER. GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS.
NOTABLY COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS, IF NOT A TAD BELOW NORMAL. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY DIGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO END THE
WEEK, WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ALSO TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS
IS LIKELY TO BRING UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IS
POSSIBLE, SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 20S, THEN WIDESPREAD TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH/EAST WINDS FRIDAY QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 25-
30 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, THEN WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCA LEVELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...KLW/CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
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