247
FXUS61 KLWX 191428
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 AM UPDATE: CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WHILE REMAINING LIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST WITH THOSE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE 20S FOR MOST WITH ONLY THOSE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR IN METRO REGIONS STAYING IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS
PRECIPITATION COINCIDES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
DAY, MOUNTAIN SNOW IS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF A RAIN & SNOW MIX
MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE METROS. WHILE CHANCES REMAIN LOW,
WINTRY MIX DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IS POSSIBLE. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE MORNING, PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TRANSITIONS TO RAIN WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG
THE ALLEGHENIES. SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING.
CURRENTLY HAVE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR THOSE
IN THE ALLEGHENIES WITH MEASURABLE SNOW SPREADING TO NE
MARYLAND. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING
SNOW TOTALS AS YOU GO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT FOR MOST, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S(TEENS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES). FOR SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN SOME PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN TO
THE ALLEGHENIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE DAYS AROUND CHRISTMAS,
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
OR WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
COLD AND SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH FREEZING FOR MOST, AND WINDS GUST AROUND 15-20 MPH ALONG/EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS,
WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY REMAINS COLD, THEN A
SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KCHO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, WHEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 30
KNOTS.
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN WINDS BEGIN TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD KEEPS
WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/ADM
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...AVS/ADM/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KRR
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