453
FXUS61 KLWX 170312
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY MID WEEK, THEN TRACK TO THE CAROLINAS AND UP OFF THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER
LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, VERY GUSTY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DESPITE THE LATE HOUR OF THE EVENING, A NUMBER OF SPOTS CONTINUE
TO GUST UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS, THE LATEST
00Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS, AND WELL-MIXED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS,
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THESE ADVISORIES SHOULD BE
ALLOWED TO DROP OFF DOWN IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER WEST, HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LARGELY
MATCHES THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN WHERE 55 TO 60 MPH GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES.
ON THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THE EQUATION, SNOW CONTINUES
TO FALL ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME RADAR RETURNS ALSO
PERSIST FARTHER EAST INTO THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS IS OWING TO
THE HIGHER THAN USUAL FROUDE NUMBERS WHICH ASSESS THE ABILITY OF
SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION TO TAKE PLACE. THESE HIGHER FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATE THE HIGH INVERSION LEVELS EXPECTED WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SUCH ACTIVITY MIGRATING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
OTHERWISE, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS GARRETT AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF GRANT AND PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALSO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF HIGHLAND, MINERAL, AND
ALLEGANY COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH TEENS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUBZERO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER EAST, FLURRIES MAY CROSS AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH OF I-66/US-50. NOT SURE IF WINDS QUITE REACH WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT IT WILL BE GUSTY EITHER WAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S (TEENS/20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST NEVER FULLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH TUESDAY. SO WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FOR MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST), AND A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE (PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN). GREATER SPACING BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN LESS INTERACTION, AND LATER
PHASING BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES, LEADING TO A MORE SOUTHERN
STORM TRACK. THIS TREND TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED, SOUTHERN TRACK
SYSTEM STARTED YESTERDAY, CONTINUED WITH THE 00Z RUNS LAST NIGHT,
AND IS EVEN MORE PREVALENT WITHIN INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE.
THIS TREND TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK IS LEADING TO A TREND DOWN
IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE IT STILL APPEARS
LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOWFALL, A
SCENARIO WHERE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SEES VERY
LITTLE SNOWFALL (NEARLY ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM) IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY NOW. THAT ISN'T TO SAY THAT THE
THREAT FOR A LARGER STORM HAS GONE AWAY, IT'S JUST THAT
PROBABILITIES FOR THAT OCCURRING HAVE DECREASED GREATLY. AT THE
MOMENT, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOUTHERN MARYLAND CURRENTLY STANDS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS, AS THEY'D BE LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK AND EVENTUAL DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW.
WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS, THAT DOESN'T
MEAN THAT THERE CAN'T BE FURTHER SHIFTS IN EITHER DIRECTION AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA,
AS WELL AS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS VERY
COMPLEX AT THE MOMENT, WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES YET TO OCCUR. THIS LENDS ITSELF TO
SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. SYSTEMS WITH LOTS OF CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM (AS THIS ONE WILL) ALSO COMMONLY TREND
NORTHWARD AT SHORT LEAD TIMES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO OUR
NORTHEAST AT THE TIME OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE VERY BLOCKED, SO
THAT POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHWARD SHIFT BACK IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT
STILL EXISTS. SO WHILE THE CLEAR TREND AT THE MOMENT IS VERY MUCH
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND LOWER SNOW TOTALS, THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.
IN TERM OF TIMING, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE SNOW THAT
DOES FALL WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHTER SNOW LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
ON THURSDAY, AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
(20S MOUNTAINS), WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WHILE WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED SOME SINCE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, GUSTS DO PERSIST IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE TERMINALS. POST-
FRONTAL WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW FLURRIES COULD REACH MRB TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 20 KT GUSTS
RETURNING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS THE EARLIER COLD FRONT FURTHER ADVANCES OFFSHORE, A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY (GALES LINGER INTO
MONDAY, SCAS INTO TUESDAY).
SUB-SCA NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THAT TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ004>006-008-011-013-
014-503>508.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ016>018.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ040-053-054-501-505-
506-526-527.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ036>039-050-
051-055>057-502.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ502>504-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ503.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/BRO/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...ADS/BRO/DHOF/KJP
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