821
FXUS61 KLWX 172026
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MID WEEK, THEN
TRACK TO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALL PREVIOUS LAND BASED HEADLINES HAVE ENDED. WHILE STILL GUSTY,
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANY LINGERING
UPSLOPE SNOW IS IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES AT THIS POINT, AND THOSE
SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNSET.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOME DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FURTHER SETTLE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT,
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST,
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY UPTICK SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, KEEPING SNOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTH/TRACK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA (5 INCHES) IS ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. MARYS COUNTY, SO
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH THERE. WHETHER IT SNOWS OR NOT,
IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
WILL HAVE PROGRESSED OFF TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AROUND
MIDDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN
THE ALLEGHENIES, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST,
WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS ONLY REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO WIND DOWN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (20S MOUNTAINS).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND,
LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES,
AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SATURDAY, AND THEN MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER AFTER SUNSET, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND AT LEAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT (EXCEPT AT CHO). A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY
OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE (A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT), BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEADY STATE UNTIL DIMINISHING TUESDAY
EVENING. SOME MID OR HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS AT CHO, ALTHOUGH THE METRO TERMINALS COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS WELL.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SNOW. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. SINCE THE HIGH WON'T BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THEN BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, LIKELY LINGERING OVER THE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LOW-END GALE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ017.
VA...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-535-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
536-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KJP
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