146
FXUS61 KLWX 180118
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
818 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MID WEEK, THEN
TRACK TO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH STILL GUSTY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FURTHER SETTLE INTO THE AREA. LOWS DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST, WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY UPTICK SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, KEEPING SNOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTH/TRACK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA (5 INCHES) IS ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. MARYS COUNTY, SO
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH THERE. WHETHER IT SNOWS OR NOT,
IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
WILL HAVE PROGRESSED OFF TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AROUND
MIDDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN
THE ALLEGHENIES, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST,
WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS ONLY REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO WIND DOWN IN THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (20S MOUNTAINS).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND,
LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES,
AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON SATURDAY, AND THEN MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED QUICKLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. (EXCEPT AT CHO). A
SLIGHT UPTICK MAY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE (A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT), BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEADY STATE UNTIL
DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS AT CHO, ALTHOUGH THE METRO TERMINALS COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS WELL.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SNOW. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. SINCE THE HIGH WON'T BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, WITH THE GALE
WARNING BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL THE WATERS. A PERIOD
OF BELOW SCA WINDS IS LIKELY IN SOME PARTS OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT, THEN WINDS PICK UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. SOME
SCA LEVEL WINDS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LOW-END GALE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ017.
VA...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...KRR/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/ADS/KJP
MARINE...KRR/ADS/KJP
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