363
FXUS61 KLWX 181954
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL TRACK TO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER
LATE IN THE WEEK, AND A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF A WEEK MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SEEING SOME
WAVE CLOUDS SHOW UP IN VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS IS PAIRED WITH
BRISK CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
LATER TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
APPROACH WEST-CENTRAL VA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH
TRACKS EASTWARD. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 3-5AM OVER HIGHLAND COUNTY DOWN OVER TO
WINTERGREEN.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NOTED WITH THE FORECAST TODAY
COMPARED TO OVERNIGHT, SO WE WILL START THERE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA, THE VA
PIEDMONT, SOUTHERN MD, AND EVEN WESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY IN WV.
THIS EVENT REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX IN NATURE, BUT ASIDE FROM A
FEW OUTLIERS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REALLY REMAINED CONSISTENT
TODAY WITH HEAVIEST SNOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SCOOT BY TO THE SOUTH, PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW
WILL STAY SOUTH OF I-66 AND MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-64 GIVEN
THE FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN TRACK AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH. THERE WAS A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NORTH WITH
THIS PACKAGE, BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS LISTED. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS EVENT
IS LIKELY TO HAVE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT, AND AREAS NORTH OF THAT
GRADIENT MAY SEE NO SNOW AT ALL. IN FACT AREAS NORTH OF I-66 MAY
EVEN HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION.
AREAS IN THE ADVISORIES HOWEVER CAN EXPECT AROUND 1-4 INCHES,
DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY,
AND MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ANY
INTERACTION WITH THE INCREASINGLY DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW. ADDED A
FEW TENTHS TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS ROUND
OF SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, FOR AREAS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT SEPARATELY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.
LASTLY, WIND ALSO BECOMES A THREAT ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. IN TURN, THIS WILL ALSO BRING COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE PICTURE GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING WHILE
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY,
GENERALLY 30-40 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY, ALLOWING A WARMING
TREND TO BEGIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG
THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, IT COULD BE
WINTRY IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, REACHING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE PRIMARY LOW TRACK
WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA, THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE LOCALLY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEADY STATE, IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE, UNTIL DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. MID OR HIGH LEVEL WAVE
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS AT CHO, ALTHOUGH THE METRO TERMINALS COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS WELL.
THURSDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AT THE METRO
TERMINALS, THOUGH IT WILL BE SPORADIC IN NATURE. DURING HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS, COULD BRIEFLY SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WINDS MAY
GUST 25-35 KT FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TURNING
LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. SINCE THE HIGH WON'T BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY, WITH
NORTHERLY CHANNELING EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SOLID SCA TO POSSIBLE
GALES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH WAS
ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT ADVISORIES LIKELY CONTINUE. LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ016-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ025-036-037-504-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ038-050-056-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CJL
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