237
FXUS61 KLWX 191933
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER LATE IN THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RADAR TRENDS STILL SHOWING A FEW MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW WITHIN A
BROAD SHIELD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
SEEM TO BE FALLING ON THE LOW END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THUS FAR. HEAVIEST
BAND STILL PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MD, BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE COMING DOWN EARLIER THAN ADVERTISED AS THIS EVENT COMES TO AN END
THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW COULD LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN MD
HOWEVER, HENCE WHY THE ADVISORY THERE GOES UNTIL 10 PM. THIS IS DUE
THE LOW TRACKING A BIT NORTHEAST UP THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND TAKING THE SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. AT THE END OF THIS SYSTEM, WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN THE HARDEST HIT SPOTS,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN SOUTHERN MD, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
A PRONOUNCED LULL IS LIKELY IN BETWEEN, BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT, PAINTING A WIDESPREAD
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING
DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, EVEN WITH THE
HIGHER LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE AND TIME OF DAY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
COLD ANTECEDENT SURFACE TEMPS. WITH THIS OCCURRING DURING A
POTENTIALLY SENSITIVE TIME FOR THE METRO AREA COMMUTE, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AS A RESULT. MOST AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH, BUT IT COULD STICK ON ROADS AND CREATE SLICK SPOTS,
OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. GUSTS OF 30 TO AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND HEADLINES WERE
CONSIDERED, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME,
AND IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. FURTHER
COLLABORATION ON THIS MAY BE NEEDED ON LATER SHIFTS. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA,
SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND START THEM THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
ALLGHENY RIDGE.
ADDITIONALLY, UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BEGIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ADDED FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET ON A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIKELY RESULTS IN WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIDGELINE AS A RESULT.
BLUSTERY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, THOUGH UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY VERY WELL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THINKING THE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DONE BY THIS POINT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE TRAVERSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A
SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS COULD BRING UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES MONDAY. A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY, WHICH
COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
A STEADY WARMUP IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WARM TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE - IN THE 20S THIS
WEEKEND AND 30S FOR START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS AT CHO HAVE IMPROVED AS SNOWFALL HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST. IAD AND DCA HAD BEEN SEEING SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION NOTED, BUT THAT HAS ALSO JUST COME TO AN END.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BUT GENERALLY LIGHT.
THURSDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AT THE METRO
TERMINALS. DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, COULD BRIEFLY SEE VSBYS
REDUCED TO IFR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DOES
PERSIST ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHICH IS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND, REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MORE SOUTHERN WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT, THAT COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT WATER LEVELS LOWER THAN
NORMAL ACROSS THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WESTERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. AS OF THIS MORNING'S LOW TIDE, A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING WATER LEVELS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET BELOW MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. SOME REBOUND IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOCATIONS PUSH
TOWARD HIGH TIDE. OWING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN RATHER LOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST DOES KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST
ABOVE THOSE REQUIRING ANOTHER MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR BLOWOUT
TIDES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MDZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ016-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
VAZ053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ503.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ050-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
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