574
FXUS61 KLWX 200857
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH BACKSIDE SNOW SHOWERS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER LATE IN THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LULL IN SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE
MAIN MOISTURE EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE APPROACHING
BACKSIDE MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM WV. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TP START ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NOW (OUT WEST) AND
11 AM (NEAR THE WATERS). EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES, THERE SHOULD
ONLY BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUMP ONLY HAPPENING OVER ROUGHLY A THREE-HOUR PERIOD WITH SOME
RESIDUAL FLURRIES ON THE ONSET AND BACK-END OF THE SYSTEM.
GENERALLY, TOTALS UP TO AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE METRO AREAS AND
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM TODAY. A MORE PROLONGED
UPSLOPE EVENT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT HAS LED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE OUT WEST THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SQUALLS LATER TODAY GIVEN THE INCREASE MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH MODEST CAPE, ESPECIALLY OVER NE MD. MOST MOISTURE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHARPLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE RIDGETOPS
WHERE SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KNOTS BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. THE GUSTY
WINDS COUPLED WITH ALREADY FRIGID TEMPERATURES, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE LOW 20S
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ASIDE FROM LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT ON FRIDAY, MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT COLD AND
WINDY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE DAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES NEARBY AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST FROM THE HEART OF THE
CONUS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED
TO FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WHILE HAVING LIGHTER
WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD BEING MORE NORTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT, ALBEIT WITH RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES. ON SUNDAY, SOME OF
THESE WEAK IMPULSES IN THE JET TRACK OVERHEAD, BUT THEY AT MOST
SPAWN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAINTAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE STEADY WARM UP
CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 50 DEGREE TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION IS
NOTED IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, ANY SUCH
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THUS, EXPECT
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE RELEGATED TO THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GIVEN THE
MILDER PATTERN SETTING UP, ANY WINTRY COMPONENT SHOULD LARGELY
FOCUS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE, A MAINLY DRY
PATTERN PERSISTS ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO
PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S. AN UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH BY MID-WEEK WITH SOME COOLING LIKELY THEREAFTER.
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD INCREASES MARKEDLY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BRIEF
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS SNOW BEGINNING AT KMRB BY 12Z AND GETTING TO KBWI
BY 15/16Z. THE CURRENT TAF REPRESENTS AROUND A 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR
THE IMPACT SNOW SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD BEYOND
THE WINDOW THAT COULD STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT FLURRIES
AROUND. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. A GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND DOES PERSIST ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE DAY AND LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OWING TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFF TO THE WEST. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS, WHICH IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MORE SOUTHERN WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT, THAT
COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-ADVISORY CALIBER WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUCH WINDS SHOULD TURN MAINLY SOUTHERLY THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME SNAPBACK OF THE WATER LEVELS WITH
RISING TIDAL ANOMALIES, THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT, A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL HELP LOWER
WATER LEVELS AGAIN TODAY. THUS, EXPECT CONTINUED LOW WATER
ISSUES ACROSS THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND WESTERN SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR VAZ053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-536-538-542.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ535-536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/ADM
MARINE...BRO/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
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