108
FXUS61 KLWX 210214
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE SFR PRODUCT SHOWS CONTINUED SNOW ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES IN THE FORM OF UPSLOPE SNOW WHICH IS ALMOST ALL
BELOW THE RADAR BEAMS FROM PBZ, RLX, CTP, AND LWX. CAMERAS SHOW
SNOW COVERED ROADS. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES
INTO TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG/WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, TOTALLY AROUND 3-5 INCHES BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 20-25MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS
OF 35-40MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IN PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, WIND
CHILLS BELOW -10F ARE EXPECTED, AND THAT IS WHERE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES FRIDAY MORNING,
THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED AFTER THAT.
ELSEWHERE, DRY, COLD, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
HIGHS LIKELY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE DAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES NEARBY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE LARGELY NORTHERN STREAM
DOMINANT WITH ONLY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S, EXCEPT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A STRONGER, WETTER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN IMPACT GOING FORWARD WILL COME FROM GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO AROUND 15-25 KNOTS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 20-30
KNOTS FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY.
MARINE
GALE FORCE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. WHILE THE MORE PERSISTENT
GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, EXPECT
OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS IN THE SMALLER RIVERS, BAYS, AND
TRIBUTARIES.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MORE SOUTHERN WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY, THEN SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
HELP KEEP WATER OUT OF THE BAY, RESULTING IN LOW WATER ISSUES
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY EVIDENT DURING THE
LOW TIDE CYCLES. SOME IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505-
506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-
543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...ADM/KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...ADM/CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/ADM/CPB/KRR
MARINE...LFR/ADM/CPB/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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