528
FXUS61 KLWX 211454
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE: UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT AT THIS TIME, WITH NO SIGN OF SLOWING DOWN FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON
FOR THOSE ZONES. CAN EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH BEFORE
THINGS START TO WIND DOWN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN COLD AND BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO 40 MPH
FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGES. WHILE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING, IT WILL REMAIN
EXTREMELY COLD THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL STILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH TONGIGHT, SO IT WON'T BE WARM BY ANY
MEANS. CONTINUE TO DRESS WARM AND LIMIT EXTENDED OUTDOOR
EXPOSURE DURING THIS TIME.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE AROUND THE AREA FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST
THREE DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, IT WON'T MATTER DUE TO A BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WIND MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S YET AGAIN. FURTHER
WEST, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE FOR THE DAY TO GET IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S, AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY
COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY. IN THE VALLEYS, PROBABLY IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH MOST AIR TEMPERATURES
BELOW 10 DEG OUT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND TEENS AND 20S
FURTHER EAST. ULTIMATELY, WITH INCREASED WINDS COUPLED WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
FOR MOST WITH EVEN COLDER VALUES UP ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
HEADING LATER INTO THE DAY AND FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN APPROACHING MORE NORMAL RANGES FOR MID TO LATE
FEBRUARY, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST
AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A
PLETHORA OF LOW TO MEDIUM AMPLITUDE WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. ON TUESDAY, A SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
LIKELY TO CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE
OVERALL ACCESS TO MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SEEING A BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
SOUNDING MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM, THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TO
EVENING RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, DO BELIEVE THE DAY WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN-FREE. A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY LATE TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
YIELDING A FALL IN DEW POINTS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
OWING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE OF A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AT THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTS,
SUFFICIENT WARMING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
EASILY MAKE FOR MILDER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED.
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, WHILE THE
USUAL COLDER MOUNTAIN LOCALES HOLD STEADY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
SIMILARLY, THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN PLUS ADDED CLOUD COVER FAVORS
TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE LIKELY. THIS PATTERN
NEARS A CLOSE BY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AS NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EVENTUALLY INCREASE AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY INTO PERHAPS EARLY FRIDAY.
LIFT IS STRONGER THAN PRECEDING SYSTEMS, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
MOSTLY CONTROL HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS OUT OF THE SKY. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THE ENSEMBLE SURFACE LOWS IS TO CARRY THE WAVE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FAVOR MAINLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH
TERRAIN INFLUENCES COULD COME INTO PLAY WHERE SNOW MIXES IN.
THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST YIELDS TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY, ALBEIT WITH A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON ENSEMBLE BOX-AND-
WHISKER PLOTS.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE
WORK WEEK STARTS OFF DRY, A FEW TERMINALS COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER
ON TUESDAY. INITIAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE TURNING TO
THE WEST BY TUESDAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY, SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS CONTINUING
HEADING INTO THE WORK-WEEK.
GRADIENTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD START AS SOUTHERLY BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
WATERS BY THE EVENING WHICH SHIFTS WINDS OVER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW WATER LEVELS CONTINUE OWING TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS CONTINUE TO BE
ISSUED FOR SUCH AN ISSUE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME HINT AT WATER LEVELS REBOUNDING
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER,
UNTIL THEN, THE NEXT FEW LOW TIDES MAY LEAD TO LOW WATER.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ001.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...CJL/ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/ADM
MARINE...BRO/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
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