208
FXUS61 KLWX 220900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SETTLING OFF TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WHILE A WETTER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW CLEAR SKIES, BUT SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS
YIELDS A STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF GARRETT COUNTY BACK
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN GRANT COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
EROSION OF THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A
SPRAWLING AREA OF MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT DOES SHOW AN
ARRAY OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRACKING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
LIFT IN THIS LAYER WILL SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA. OTHERWISE, IN BETWEEN THESE CLOUDS, PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S (30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS).
WIND FIELDS TURN LIGHTER INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS GRADIENTS
IN THE AREA REMAIN WEAK. WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT, IT
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 20S (TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DOES BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH,
RELOCATING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS
SHIFT OVER TO WESTERLY LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING. DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS SHOULD HELP RAISE HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
SOME 30S TO LOW 40S ARE LIKELY OVER MOUNTAIN LOCALES. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS DAY, MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD AS DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TRACK THROUGH. BUT THESE SHOULD NOT HINDER WARMING GIVEN
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FORECAST
LOWS STAY VERY CLOSE TO LATE FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY (MID/UPPER
20S, LOCALLY COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS).
LOOKING TOWARD THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING ENSUES AS MID TO UPPER LEVELS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
BUILD. ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-66 SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THIS CARRIES
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS. A RETURN FLOW ENSUES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER STILL BACK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. A CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS CARRIES ALL
AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE THE ALLEGHENY RIDGETOPS WHICH STAY CLOSER TO 32
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE LIMITS POPS TO MAINLY THE NW AREAS,
WITH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. MOISTURE MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS DISTURBANCE THAT MAY LEAD TO JUST A WIND
SHIFT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, LOW TO MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING
IN. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
USHERING IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW BUILDS IN AND SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS FORM ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR
THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK GETTING TO MORE NEAR-NORMAL RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OVERHEAD EACH
DAY, BUT THESE SHOULD BE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, SOUTHERLIES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SOME
LIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY
WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
MARINE
ANY THREAT FOR ADVISORY-CALIBER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST OF TODAY
SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BEFORE RAMPING UP
A BIT TONIGHT TO 15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
WINDS TURN LIGHT AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ENSUES BY MONDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD PUSH INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...BRO/ADM
MARINE...BRO/ADM
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